Crude oil rises to $93.1 per barrel, reaching a nearly one-month high

(1) Crude oil surged again, combined with a sharp rise in French government bond yields, driving US Treasury yields back to cyclical highs. The market has observed that refined oil prices, rather than crude oil, are now the core driver of current inflation fears. (2) The yield on France’s 10-year government bonds is approaching 5%, with the spread between French and German bonds reaching its highest level since the 2011 European debt crisis, spreading term premium shocks outward. Analysts predict that the ECB may exit its balance sheet reduction earlier than market expectations. (3) A $22 billion 30-year US Treasury reissuance auction will take place on the day. Overseas demand for long-term bonds remains strong, and the attraction of high yields is expected to outweigh supply pressures. This auction may demonstrate impressive performance. (4) Federal Reserve official Waller expressed support for another rate hike but hinted that economic data could delay a hike until December. The tone of the FOMC meeting minutes was dovish, judging labor market risks as becoming more balanced, and indicating that future policy decisions will continue to depend on economic data.

(1) Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has announced the official price differentials for various crude oil grades in November, with shipment terms based on Fujairah FOB and Fujairah–Sohar FOB or ship-to-ship transfer. (2) The pricing benchmark is the average of the first row of Platts Dubai for the entire month of November 2026. (3) Murban crude commands a premium of approximately $11.00 per barrel. (4) Umm Lulu crude commands a premium of approximately $2.00 per barrel. (5) Das crude commands a premium of approximately $1.00 per barrel. (6) Upper Zakum crude commands a premium of approximately $0.50 per barrel. (7) The differences in premiums among grades reflect quality and the market supply-demand structure, with Murban, as the benchmark light crude, maintaining a significant premium. (8) Attention should be paid to how changes in the Middle East situation and freight rates may impact the transmission of official selling prices and spot premiums.

(1) An oil trader based in Texas has announced a plan worth around $2 billion, intending to purchase up to 15 oil tankers to transport crude oil through straits with heightened geopolitical tensions. (2) The trader, which is linked to Iraq's oil exports, is in the process of establishing a fleet comprised mainly of older Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs). (3) This move reflects how some market participants are securing shipping capacity in advance to mitigate heightened risks along key maritime routes. Older vessels are more cost-effective and therefore suitable for operations on high-risk routes. (4) Against the backdrop of ongoing tensions in the Middle East, rising shipping insurance premiums, and detour costs, the oil tanker asset and freight markets may continue to receive support. (5) Continued attention should be paid to the progress of this fleet's formation, the security situation for passage through the straits, and changes in freight rates and insurance costs for the relevant routes.

PepsiCo lowered its full-year core EPS growth guidance to 1% to 2%, citing a slower-than-expected recovery in North America and rising costs eroding profit margins.