Oil prices and French bonds disturbances drive up US Treasury yields; ECB may exit QT ahead of schedule

智通财经2026/10/08 12:07

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(1) Crude oil surged again, combined with a sharp rise in French government bond yields, driving US Treasury yields back to cyclical highs. The market has observed that refined oil prices, rather than crude oil, are now the core driver of current inflation fears. (2) The yield on France’s 10-year government bonds is approaching 5%, with the spread between French and German bonds reaching its highest level since the 2011 European debt crisis, spreading term premium shocks outward. Analysts predict that the ECB may exit its balance sheet reduction earlier than market expectations. (3) A $22 billion 30-year US Treasury reissuance auction will take place on the day. Overseas demand for long-term bonds remains strong, and the attraction of high yields is expected to outweigh supply pressures. This auction may demonstrate impressive performance. (4) Federal Reserve official Waller expressed support for another rate hike but hinted that economic data could delay a hike until December. The tone of the FOMC meeting minutes was dovish, judging labor market risks as becoming more balanced, and indicating that future policy decisions will continue to depend on economic data.

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