TSMC (TSM.US) Q3 revenue rises 51% year-on-year, beating expectations! Market focuses on 2027 capital expenditure, overseas capacity, and wafer pricing

Zhihu Finance APP notes that TSMC (TSM.US) reported a 51% year-on-year increase in quarterly revenue, which is a positive signal for investors trying to determine whether global AI infrastructure construction can be sustained.

In the three months ending September, TSMC's revenue totaled 1.49 trillion New Taiwan dollars (about $46.7 billion). Analysts’ average expectation was 1.46 trillion New Taiwan dollars, and its Q3 2026 earnings report is expected to be released on October 15.

The manufacturer’s strong sales growth has reinforced the market’s confidence in the outlook for AI demand. Investors currently face multiple pressures: rising debt levels, regulatory setbacks, and OpenAI and Anthropic calling for a slowdown in the pace of developing this emerging technology.

AMD (AMD.US) chief Lisa Su said this week that the company expects chip demand to remain robust in the coming years; Samsung Electronics reported operating profit surging nearly nine-fold. AI server assembler Hon Hai Precision also reported quarterly sales this week that exceeded market expectations.

As the contract manufacturer of choice for NVIDIA (NVDA.US) and Apple (AAPL.US), TSMC is seen as a barometer of AI demand. Its share price hit a record high this month, reflecting market confidence in the long-term outlook of its cutting-edge products.

Thanks to the AI boom, TSMC’s share price reached an all-time high this year

After committing $265 billion to build a campus in Arizona, TSMC is now considering further expansion in Texas due to exceptionally strong AI demand. In the first half of this year, North American clients accounted for more than 75% of the company’s total sales.

Analyst Charles Shum said, “The main focus at the third-quarter earning call will be on issues for 2027 and beyond. In July, TSMC added $100 billion to its Arizona investment plan, and media reports point to a possible Texas hub; any updates could test its guidance on overseas capacity dilution and signal capital expenditure plans for 2027.”

Shum also noted, “Pricing is another major point of interest, with reports suggesting wafer prices could rise by 3% to 6% in 2027. Additionally, updates on the A14 process, CoWoS capacity expansion, and CoPoS R&D progress will reveal how TSMC plans to respond to Intel’s (INTC.US) 14A process and the growing backlog of EMIB-T orders.”