Barclays: High yields do not mean U.S. Treasuries are cheap, term premium determines risk
智通财经2026/10/08 07:21Barclays strategists Demi Hu and Anshul Pradhan stated in a report that, based on the valuation of U.S. Treasuries, higher yields do not necessarily mean Treasuries are cheap. The strategists noted that if most of the yield reflects market expectations for short-term interest rates, investors receive less additional compensation for holding duration assets compared to investing in shorter-term roll-over instruments. They said: “A higher term premium means higher compensation but also reflects greater uncertainty and duration risk.” They added that this distinction also influences risks at various points along the yield curve. The strategists indicated that if the recent monetary policy path is reassessed, the impacts should mainly be concentrated at the front and middle segments of the yield curve, i.e., in the medium-term range; while if the term premium or the assumption for the long-term neutral rate continues to rise, greater pressure will be exerted on the long end of the yield curve.
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