Energy executives warn: shipping and refinery bottlenecks could cause oil market turmoil to persist for years

智通财经2026/10/06 01:36

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(1) Energy industry executives stated at a conference in London on Monday that shipping bottlenecks, significant refinery cutbacks, and inventory drawdowns that may take years to replenish will keep global oil prices high beyond this year. (2) Tengku Muhammad Taufik, CEO of Malaysia's national oil company Petronas, said that market turmoil will persist for most of the time until the end of this year, and possibly until 2027. (3) Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser, speaking publicly for the first time since the outbreak of the Iran war, said that emergency measures tapping into oil stockpiles globally may take up to two years to restore. He noted that pressures at both "ends of the barrel" will intensify until the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened and market confidence is restored; even if the situation improves afterward, restoring inventories while meeting demand could still take up to two years. "Both ends of the barrel" refers to unprocessed crude oil and refined products like diesel and jet fuel. He also mentioned that since the conflict began, the world has lost 3 billion barrels of crude oil, with global inventories down by 1 billion barrels. (4) ConocoPhillips Executive Chairman Ryan Lance stated that, due to the current crisis, global oil demand has declined this year and may not recover until 2028 or 2029, but is expected to return to a growth trajectory afterward. He anticipates the U.S. crude oil price floor will rise to around $70 per barrel, with mid-cycle prices between $65 and $70 per barrel; if oil prices remain firm, U.S. crude output could exceed 14 to 14.5 million barrels per day, though he did not specify the exact level of "firm" prices.

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(1) Senior executives in the energy industry stated at a conference in London on Monday that shipping bottlenecks, significant refinery output cuts, and inventory drawdowns that may take years to replenish will keep global oil prices elevated beyond this year. (2) Petronas CEO Tengku Muhammad Taufik said that for most of the remainder of this year — and potentially until 2027 — the market will remain in turmoil. (3) Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser, speaking publicly for the first time since the outbreak of the Iran war, said that the oil inventories tapped around the world as part of emergency measures may take up to two years to replenish. He stated that until the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened and market confidence restored, pressure will intensify “at both ends of the barrel” — referring to both unprocessed crude oil and refined products such as diesel and jet fuel. Even after improvements in the situation, restocking while meeting demand could still take up to two years. He also said that since the conflict began, the world has lost 3 billion barrels of crude oil, and global inventories have been drawn down by 1 billion barrels. (4) ConocoPhillips Executive Chairman Ryan Lance stated that due to the current crisis, global oil demand declined this year and may not recover until 2028 or 2029. However, he expects it to return to a growth trajectory thereafter. He predicts that the U.S. crude oil price floor will rise to around $70 per barrel, with mid-cycle prices ranging between $65 and $70 per barrel. If prices remain robust, U.S. crude oil output could exceed 14 to 14.5 million barrels per day, though he did not specify what level would constitute “robust.”

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智通财经•2026/10/06 02:36

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智通财经•2026/10/06 02:16

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智通财经•2026/10/06 02:16

In the past seven days, the average daily crude oil throughput in the Strait of Hormuz was 10.3 million barrels, only 76% of the pre-war level.

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智通财经•2026/10/06 02:16