Goldman Sachs: Gulf Oil Exports Have Recovered to About Two-Thirds of Pre-War Levels

On August 28, Goldman Sachs Group stated that Gulf oil exports have recovered to about two-thirds of pre-war levels. Analysts including Daan Struyven noted that driven by increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the total export volume of crude oil and petroleum products in the region has risen to 15 to 16 million barrels per day. This is still 7 to 8 million barrels lower than pre-conflict levels, but significantly higher than the low of 5 to 6 million barrels per day in March. The volume of oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz may be nearing the daily estimate of 8 to 10 million barrels by U.S. officials. Goldman Sachs stated, "The increasing number of professional carriers shutting off vessel tracking signals and the rise in ship-to-ship transfer activities indicate that producers and carriers are adapting to the Middle East conflict." Despite the large volume of oil being exported from the Gulf, the transportation of liquefied natural gas and refined oil remains low. Goldman Sachs added, "In a scenario of continued supply disruptions, we still believe that the upside potential for European gas prices and forward refined oil prices will be greater than that for crude oil." (Jin Shi)