Goldman Sachs: Gulf oil exports have significantly rebounded from the March low, but are only about two-thirds of pre-war levels.

According to Golden Finance APP, Goldman Sachs estimated in a research report released on Thursday that total oil exports from the Gulf region have recovered to approximately 15 to 16 million barrels per day, marking a significant rebound from the trough during the conflict, although still well below pre-war levels. Goldman Sachs used two independent methods for its estimates, showing that current export volumes are 7 to 8 million barrels per day lower than before the US-Israel war against Iran, but 5 to 6 million barrels per day higher than March's trough.

While Goldman Sachs’ overall data focuses on total Gulf flows rather than specifically on transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the bank noted that the recovery in export volumes implies that throughput through the strait itself may be approaching US officials' previous estimates of 8 to 10 million barrels per day. Since the conflict disrupted normal shipping at the end of February, this key waterway—which carries about one-fifth of the world’s daily seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas supply—has been experiencing a significant but incomplete recovery.

Goldman Sachs attributes part of this recovery to adaptive measures taken by producers and shipping companies amid ongoing turmoil. The report specifically mentions an increase in "dark ship" transportation (where professional shipping companies cross with transponders set to low visibility) and ship-to-ship transfers, suggesting that market participants have adjusted logistical strategies to maintain crude oil flows in a high-risk environment.

Goldman Sachs also stated that in a scenario of continued disruptions to Middle East supply, there remains greater upside for European natural gas and long-term refined oil product contract prices than for crude oil itself. This perspective indicates that Goldman Sachs expects that the more lasting pressure from the conflict will be concentrated in downstream parts of the supply chain and related energy markets, rather than on crude oil—adaptive shipping behavior has, to some extent, supported the crude oil market.

On Thursday, Brent crude oil futures for October delivery closed at $89.70 per barrel, up 2.12%, ending three consecutive days of declines. There was previous news that the Trump administration has no intention of reaccepting the terms of the memorandum of understanding reached with Iran in June this year. The June agreement had planned to relax sanctions, allow Iran access to overseas frozen funds in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and begin negotiations on nuclear issues and ending the war, but it broke down a few weeks later after Iran attacked ships.

The gradual recovery in Gulf export data, combined with the market’s cooling expectations for a diplomatic solution to the Iran issue in the short term, together outline the core contradiction in the current oil market: the supply side is recovering gradually, but geopolitical and military conflicts are far from resolved.