SK Hynix CEO: Memory shortage will continue until the end of 2030, and demand thereafter will not be a concern

SK Hynix CEO Kwak Noh-Jung has made a long-term optimistic assessment of the global memory chip market, providing strong endorsement for sustained prosperity in the semiconductor industry.

On August 27, local time, after the groundbreaking ceremony for the AI memory advanced packaging production base held at Purdue University in West Lafayette, Indiana, Kwak held a press conference and clearly stated that the shortage in memory chip supply will last until the end of 2030. He also pointed out that even if a downcycle occurs by then, demand will not plummet sharply, and "there is no need to worry after 2030 either."

Kwak emphasized that there are currently no clear signs of a downcycle in the market, and AI-driven demand is shifting from standardized products to customized products. This will fundamentally change the cyclical supply-demand imbalances of the past, so that even if a downturn occurs in the future, the impact of oversupply will be much less than historical levels.

Shortage Cycle May Last Until End of 2030

When asked how long the memory supply shortage would continue, Kwak replied, "No one can know exactly how long the shortage period will last, but there are no clear signals of a downturn at present. We expect the shortage situation to extend until the end of 2030."

This is so far the clearest timing prediction from SK Hynix executives regarding the current upcycle in memory. Kwak also commented that "the next downturn will be different from what we've experienced over the past decades," implying that the structural support underpinning this cycle is stronger than before.

AI Custom Demand Reshaping Supply and Demand Structure

Kwak attributed the logic behind this assessment to the structural shift in AI-driven demand. He pointed out that AI business models are pushing memory products to transform from 100% standardized items to partially or even fully customized products.

This means that supply will be more closely linked to specific demand, structurally reducing the likelihood of oversupply. Kwak stated, "Even if a downcycle does come, demand will not decrease sharply. It is more likely to slow somewhat or remain at planned levels," thus expressing that he is not worried about market prospects after 2030.

When asked whether there are plans for further expansion of semiconductor production facilities in the United States, Kwak responded, "As long as a location can provide adequate electricity, funding, and subsidies, we remain open to any site."