Gold Focuses on Fed Meeting Minutes, Housing and PMI Data This Week; Policy Expectations to Drive Price Direction

1. Entering this week, the trends in the gold and silver markets will closely revolve around the health of the US economy and the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates. Last week, gold prices were pushed to their highest level since June 5 by weak US inflation and consumer spending data, with the market-implied probability of a September interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve dropping from about 55% a week ago to 31%. Silver is trading above $65 per ounce, with precious metals maintaining an overall strong pattern.2. This week’s economic data will focus on assessing the performance of US manufacturing and housing activity. The Empire State Manufacturing Index released on Monday will feature first, as investors closely watch whether regional factory activity comes under further pressure from high interest rates and weak demand. Tuesday will bring data on housing starts, building permits, and pending home sales—housing remains one of the most rate-sensitive sectors of the economy, and continued weakness could reinforce expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged, while a surprise improvement could revive the narrative of economic resilience.3. The core event this week is the release of the FOMC July 28-29 meeting minutes in the afternoon local time on Wednesday (early Thursday Beijing time). The market will closely examine policymakers’ internal discussions on inflation, economic growth, and the path of interest rates. Any signs that officials are more inclined to keep rates unchanged will support gold, while hawkish rhetoric could suppress gold prices by pushing up US Treasury yields and the dollar.4. Thursday will see the release of weekly initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. Initial jobless claims remain one of the most timely indicators of labor market conditions, while the Philadelphia Fed survey offers another perspective on manufacturing activity and price pressures—the index saw a large, unexpected jump in July, and the market will be watching to see if the rebound can continue. Friday’s release of the S&P Global Composite PMI flash reading will provide an early snapshot of private sector business activity in August.5. For precious metals, all data next week will ultimately be interpreted through the lens of Federal Reserve policy expectations. Weak manufacturing, housing, and business activity data, combined with dovish meeting minutes, could further strengthen expectations for rates to remain unchanged and support gold; while stronger data or renewed signs of inflationary pressures could revive rate hike expectations, creating short-term resistance for gold prices. If you need further condensing or style adjustments, please let me know at any time.