ASEAN FX: Regional data and growth concerns – MUFG

MUFG analysts focus on several ASEAN indicators for regional currencies. They flag Singapore’s July non-oil domestic exports after June’s strong 20.7% year-on-year rise, and expect Malaysia’s CPI to stay contained at 1.9% year-on-year. Thailand’s Q2 GDP is seen slowing, reinforcing cyclical underperformance and weighing on THB, while Bank Indonesia is expected to keep its policy rate at 5.75% as the Rupiah stabilizes.

Exports, inflation and GDP shape FX

"Across ASEAN, Singapore's July non-oil domestic exports will be closely watched after June's strong 20.7%yoy increase."

"Malaysia's inflation data should confirm that price pressures remain relatively contained, with CPI expected to hold at 1.9%yoy."

"Elsewhere, Thailand's Q2 GDP is expected to slow."

"A weaker growth profile would reinforce concerns over Thailand's cyclical underperformance and may continue to weigh on THB relative to regional peers."

"Indonesia's Bank Indonesia meeting is likely to be a non-event, with market consensus expecting the BI rate to remain unchanged at 5.75%."