Foreign media: Bloomberg strategist says bitcoin may fall back to $10,000
Foreign media report that Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has updated his medium-term outlook for Bitcoin. He believes that while the US stock market continues to reach new highs, Bitcoin has failed to strengthen in tandem, indicating that the momentum behind this rally is waning.
Has Not Held Above $69,000
The article states that McGlone views $69,000 as a key psychological threshold. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 continue to set record highs, but Bitcoin has never managed to hold steadily above this level. He interprets this as a sign of a cooling in speculative fervor.
He also describes Bitcoin's rise over the past few years as a "Faustian bargain." In his view, the industry has attracted institutional funds in this way, but at the cost of becoming increasingly dependent on external liquidity and policy stimulus.

ETF Inflows Slowing Down
McGlone recalls that Bitcoin's recent surges have all coincided with significant external catalysts: in 2021, global loose liquidity drove prices higher; in early 2024, the launch of US spot ETFs brought a new wave of buying; then, a shift in regulatory stance and heightened policy expectations temporarily pushed prices above $100,000.
However, according to him, these supports are currently weakening. The article notes that Bitcoin's latest price is around $63,000, and ETF inflows have slowed, while the buzz from regulatory themes has also faded. The market is once again facing the macro cycle itself.
Correlation With US Stocks Continues
McGlone also mentioned that a historical chart from Bloomberg shows that Bitcoin's trend is quite close to US tech stocks, especially in relation to the performance of the Nasdaq 100 index compared to the S&P 500, indicating a strong correlation.
He believes that as this relative strength indicator starts to weaken, Bitcoin may also come under downward pressure. According to his analysis, if the financial cycle returns to its long-term average, Bitcoin risks falling back to the average range of 2019 to 2020, which is around $10,000.
The article also points out that the continued increase in alternative tokens is considered by him to be one of the factors suppressing Bitcoin's performance. However, this view is also noted as controversial in the article, as the proliferation of low-quality tokens does not necessarily weaken Bitcoin, and might instead enhance the concentration of institutional funds in Bitcoin.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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