The United States threatens to indefinitely blockade Iran, oil prices rise by nearly 2%

1. On Friday, international oil prices fluctuated and rebounded, with US crude oil futures rising by up to 2.09% to $82.97 per barrel and Brent crude oil futures rising by up to 1.85% to $88.56 per barrel. In the previous trading day, both major benchmark oil prices fell by more than 2% due to weak global demand outlook, ending their multi-day rally. However, the weekly chart still shows promise of more than a 7% gain this week.2. On Thursday, the United States stated it may maintain its maritime blockade against Iran indefinitely and intensify economic pressure on Tehran. This latest threat comes amid Iran continuing to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Iran's Fars News Agency, the new leader of Iran’s "Basij" paramilitary organization claimed the Strait of Hormuz is "under Iran's control and management."3. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates reported that two vessels belonging to Abu Dhabi National Oil Company were attacked while crossing the strait, and the UAE government condemned the attack, attributing it to Iran.4. On the demand side, this week both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth. Combined with US crude oil inventories recording the largest weekly increase in three and a half years, these factors partly offset market concerns about supply disruptions caused by war.5. Analysts pointed out that the two major forces of geopolitical risks and weak demand are balancing each other, providing some support for the market, but, with these opposing pressures persisting, oil prices struggle to achieve meaningful gains. After Iraq announced a ban on the use of the US dollar, Iran announced the discovery of a large lithium mine, adding new geopolitical premium to the supply side.