New Zealand Dollar hesitates despite weaker US Dollar on renewed Iran diplomacy hopes

NZD/USD trades around 0.5790 at the time of writing on Monday, virtually unchanged on the day. The pair is struggling to extend its rebound despite a less supportive backdrop for the US Dollar (USD), as investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

The Greenback is weakening following reports of renewed diplomatic efforts between the United States (US) and Iran, reducing demand for safe-haven assets. The improvement in market sentiment has also triggered a sharp decline in Oil prices, helping to ease US inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations of monetary easing by the Fed. US Treasury yields are also moving lower, adding further pressure on the US Dollar.

US economic data released on Monday failed to provide additional support for the Greenback. Durable Goods Orders rose by just 0.3% in June, well below the market expectation of a 1.6% increase, pointing to weaker momentum in manufacturing investment. However, the market reaction remained limited as investors preferred to wait for the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Geopolitical developments continue to discourage aggressive positioning. While the current pause between Washington and Tehran has improved market sentiment, risks to global energy supplies remain, particularly after Ansar Allah claimed responsibility for attacks on Saudi facilities along the Red Sea.

On the New Zealand side, the outlook remains relatively supportive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Stronger-than-expected inflation data has reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will deliver another rate hike at its September meeting. This more hawkish outlook continues to limit the downside potential for NZD/USD, although investors remain reluctant to establish fresh positions ahead of the Fed's policy announcement.