The U.S. pauses military strikes against Iran; European natural gas futures plunge over 8% in a single day, marking the largest drop in more than a month.

(1) Over the weekend, the US paused its military strikes against Iran, leading to the European benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas futures falling as much as 8.3% intraday to €58.28 per megawatt hour—the largest single-day drop since June 15. (2) Previously, US forces had carried out strikes against Iran for 13 consecutive days. Since Friday night, the US has paused operations, sparking widespread speculation about President Trump's future policy direction in the market. (3) The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply. Affected by conflicts in the Middle East and regional attacks, LNG transportation along this route has largely come to a standstill this month. The risk of supply disruption had been the main driver behind recent high prices.