Caixin Futures: Shanghai Copper Lacks Sustained Momentum After Surge; Lithium Carbonate Rebounds, Closes Up 2.55%

⑴ Shanghai copper is running in a volatile manner. Macro-level geopolitical risks have not fully dissipated, but market sentiment is marginally recovering. On the supply side, long-term mine supply remains tight, and refined copper visible inventories are low. Overseas copper spot shortages are intensifying squeeze risks, with domestic rigid-demand procurement as the main driver while consumption remains weak. After the rally, copper prices lack sustained upward momentum and are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Follow-up attention should be paid to the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy path.⑵ Shanghai aluminum is running in a volatile manner. Macro sentiment is marginally warming. Fundamentally, new overseas investments and restarted production projects are continuously pushing forward, with electrolytic aluminum supply expected to increase. However, the global aluminum ingot destocking trend is hard to reverse in the short term. With both bullish and bearish factors intertwined, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate mainly in the near term.⑶ Shanghai zinc is running in a strong and volatile manner. The global tight supply pattern for zinc mines has not changed, and processing fees remain at low levels, providing bottom support. On the demand side, seasonal consumption weakness is evident, but overseas LME zinc inventories continue to decline, which supports prices. With mixed bullish and bearish factors, zinc prices are expected to be strong and volatile in the short term.⑷ Precious metals are running in a volatile manner. Geopolitical disturbances continue, but precious metals have been running strongly over the past two days, gradually detaching from their negative correlation with crude oil. Gold may be at the early stage of a narrative shift. Although many central banks are entering rate hike cycles, major central bank gold purchases provide a price floor. Volatility is expected in the short term, with support in the long term. Strategically, buying on dips may be considered.⑸ Lithium carbonate tested the bottom and rebounded, with the main contract closing up 2.55% at 145,000 yuan per ton. Today, the battery-grade lithium carbonate median price rose by 3,400 yuan to 145,400 yuan per ton, and warehouse receipts decreased by 531 tons. Despite strong destocking performance at this stage, the market generally remains cautious about sustainability, as compared to the high certainty on the supply side, demand-side acceptance still needs time to be verified. Recently, pessimism about forward demand has pushed prices down, but fundamental support still exists. After pessimistic sentiment is released, prices are expected to stabilize.