The probability of "Trump pardoning SBF before July 31" on Polymarket has dropped below 1%, with no new deadlines added.

Foresight News reports that according to Polymarket's page, the current probability in the betting market for "Trump pardoning SBF before July 31" has dropped to less than 1%, with trading volume around $836,000. At present, Polymarket has not launched other prediction markets for different expiration dates regarding this forecast.

According to market rules, if Sam Bankman-Fried receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Trump by 11:59 on August 1, 2026, the market will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No". If Trump is objectively unable to issue a federal pardon within this time frame, the market may immediately settle as "No". Settlement is based primarily on official information from the U.S. government, and widespread coverage by credible media may also be used as a reference.

Foresight News previously reported that the U.S. Senate passed a resolution opposing granting a pardon to FTX founder SBF, stating that SBF "should not, under any circumstances," receive a pardon or commutation.