K-type differentiation, when will it converge? [Dapeng Talks, Episode 4]

In July 2026, the global market stands at a critical crossroads: the Nasdaq has been fluctuating within a narrow range for more than two months, U.S. short-term interest rates continue to climb, and the volatility of gold and copper is gradually narrowing. Meanwhile, AI capital expenditure maintains a rapid growth rate of over 60%, earnings reports from tech giants are about to be released intensively, and the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting is scheduled for one week later. The market's focus has long shifted beyond individual events to the structural theme of K-shaped divergence.

In this column, [Chen Dapeng] will draw upon his personal experience of three major market divergences over the decade from 2016 to 2026, offering an in-depth analysis of the formation mechanisms, driving factors, and end conditions of K-shaped divergence. From the 19-day consecutive rally of the SSE 50 in January 2018, to the industry clustering around new energy and semiconductors between 2019 and 2021, and then to the new wave of divergence led by AI after 2023, the underlying logic of the market has never changed: the second derivative of profit growth dictates capital flows, while the trends of interest rates and exchange rates set the macro environment. This column will systematically sort out the essence of K-shaped divergence and strategies for response from the three dimensions of market divergence, economic divergence, and the current interest rate outlook.