Accurate Prediction Account Returns: Betting on both the assassination attempt on Hassan Rouhani and the closure of airspace, the account predicted that all of Iran's airspace would be closed within 2 days. Despite a 75% unrealized loss, the account holder still refuses to take a stop-loss.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, an account that previously correctly predicted the resignation of Hassan Rouhani and the closure of Iranian airspace in June has returned for the market "Will the entire Iranian airspace be closed by July 15th?" with a $5.0k investment in "Yes." The average buy-in probability was 26.1%, and the current "Yes" probability is 6.7%.

Address 0xef14b870 invested $5.0k in the best-performing category of Iran-related markets, with a net profit of $83.7k. Out of 6 settled trades in this category, the account has a win rate of 3/6 (50%), with 3 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95.

The settlement condition for this market "Yes" required Iran to officially announce a universal suspension applicable to all commercial flights covering the entire country or the Tehran FIR. Previously, temporary local restrictions during Rouhani's funeral in Tehran, restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz, and the suspension of foreign airlines' Iran routes did not meet the settlement criteria for this market.

On July 12-13, Reuters reported that the U.S. and Iran carried out missile and drone strikes in the Gulf region. Iran targeted multiple U.S. military facilities in Gulf countries and once again threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. retaliated against Iranian facilities, focusing on military targets in Iranian port cities, islands, and around the strait.

Although the conflict seems to be escalating, the narrative of de-escalation has not disappeared entirely. On July 10, Reuters reported that Trump mentioned the end of the ceasefire but agreed to continue negotiations with Iran. Talks between Iran and Oman regarding passage through the strait did not yield results, but at least indicated that both sides are keeping communication channels open.

Account:
0xef14b870b532647f29354ff24476d7bd5ff7c335

Total Investment: $5.0k
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