US Stock Weekly Macro Preview (June 29 - July 3)

June 29 (Monday)

1. US June Dallas Fed Business Activity Index released;
2. 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks (impact: regional manufacturing data serves as preview for this week's PMI, mild effect on risk sentiment).

June 30 (Tuesday)

1. US June Chicago PMI, May JOLTs Job Openings, and June Conference Board Consumer Confidence released;
2. Nike (NKE.US) and Constellation Brands (STZ.US) report earnings after the close; ★★ (Nike earnings as key gauge for consumer stocks).

July 1 (Wednesday)

1. US June ADP Employment Report released;
2. US June ISM Manufacturing PMI released;
3. Fed Chair Walsh speaks at ECB Forum (Walsh speech is the week's biggest highlight, may signal H2 policy direction on rate hikes/maintenance/pivot).

July 2 (Thursday)

1. US June Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims released, market expects +113k jobs and 4.3% unemployment rate; ★★★

July 3 (Friday)

1. US stock market closed for Independence Day holiday;

*This week marks the end of H1 and key window for H2 policy tone-setting. Employment data and Walsh's remarks will dictate near-term market direction. Focus on whether employment data supports Fed policy shift, and consumer sector guidance from Nike earnings.