On Wednesday (March 11, the day of the US CPI inflation data release), the Rate Cut Winners Index fell by 1.08% to 89.96 points, mainly fluctuating narrowly at a low level.

1. On Thursday, the US dollar steadied near an 18-month high amid quiet trading in the Asian session. Previously released minutes from the Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee signaled a hawkish stance, indicating that policymakers see inflation as the greatest risk to their economic outlook. 2. The dollar index remained stable near 102.30, rising 0.3% on Wednesday and still staying close to its highest levels since April 9, 2025. Federal Reserve policymakers unanimously voted to raise rates by 25 basis points at the September 15-16 meeting, but Wednesday's minutes revealed divisions among officials regarding the rationale for the hike. 3. Analysts at Westpac wrote that the minutes reinforced the hawkish tone accompanying the September rate increase, with the majority of participants still viewing further policy tightening as appropriate, and nearly all participants seeing inflation risks skewed to the upside during the meeting. 4. The yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds rose by 4.4 basis points to 5.329%. Analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group commented that continued selling of US Treasuries is becoming an increasingly important driver in global markets. Should long-term Treasury yields rise further, market focus could shift to a comprehensive tightening of US financial conditions and whether policymakers begin to show greater concern over the state of the Treasury market. 5. However, the minutes did not alter market expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates unchanged at the October meeting. The CME FedWatch tool shows that federal funds futures pricing now indicates an 81.7% probability that the Fed will keep rates steady in October, slightly up from 80.1% the previous day.

Barclays strategists Demi Hu and Anshul Pradhan stated in a report that, based on the valuation of U.S. Treasuries, higher yields do not necessarily mean Treasuries are cheap. The strategists noted that if most of the yield reflects market expectations for short-term interest rates, investors receive less additional compensation for holding duration assets compared to investing in shorter-term roll-over instruments. They said: “A higher term premium means higher compensation but also reflects greater uncertainty and duration risk.” They added that this distinction also influences risks at various points along the yield curve. The strategists indicated that if the recent monetary policy path is reassessed, the impacts should mainly be concentrated at the front and middle segments of the yield curve, i.e., in the medium-term range; while if the term premium or the assumption for the long-term neutral rate continues to rise, greater pressure will be exerted on the long end of the yield curve.

The main Nymex US crude oil futures contract has just surpassed the $91.00 per barrel mark, last quoted at $91.01 per barrel, up 3.09% on the day.

The President of the Osaka Branch of the Bank of Japan stated that large enterprises and exporters benefit from the weak yen, while smaller service-oriented companies are more susceptible to the negative impacts of yen depreciation.