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Diesel crisis! Hormuz supply disruption hits industrial lifeline, global economy on alert

Diesel crisis! Hormuz supply disruption hits industrial lifeline, global economy on alert

汇通财经汇通财经2026/03/11 03:11
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1. Traders and analysts say that the surge in diesel prices is threatening a slowdown in global economic activity. Disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could result in a daily loss of 3 million to 4 million barrels of diesel supply, accounting for about 5% to 12% of total global consumption. Export obstacles from Middle Eastern refineries could cause an additional daily loss of 500,000 barrels of diesel.2. Diesel is the oil product most severely affected by this conflict, as it supports freight, agriculture, mining, and industrial activities, making it the fuel most sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for an extended period, retail diesel prices could double. From February 27 to March 10, U.S. diesel futures rose by more than $28 per barrel, far exceeding crude oil's $16 per barrel increase.3. Sharp fluctuations in diesel prices will trigger a chain reaction in the global economy. Transportation costs for almost all goods are rising, which will inevitably be reflected in food and consumer product prices. If prices remain high, the greatest risk lies in triggering a second wave of cost-driven inflation.4. The surge in diesel prices may have a direct impact on food prices, forcing American farmers to slow down progress just as the planting season begins. Persistent fuel shocks could essentially lead to stagflation, as they drive up transportation and production costs for goods while squeezing consumer spending.
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In September, Japanese investors withdrew from foreign bond markets for the second consecutive month.

Reuters, October 8 – In September, Japanese investors became net sellers of foreign bonds for the second consecutive month, driven by rising borrowing costs in the US and Europe, as well as increasingly attractive domestic yields that prompted them to withdraw from overseas bond markets. Data released by Japan's Ministry of Finance on Tuesday showed that Japanese investors were net sellers of 969 billion yen ($613 million) in foreign bonds last month, which was lower than the previous month's net sales of 1.16 trillion yen. They net sold 1.43 trillion yen in long-term foreign currency bonds—a six-month high—while purchasing about 457 billion yen in short-term notes. The increase in Japanese interest rates is beginning to attract some of the country's vast overseas investments back home, marking a significant shift in global capital flows. Year to date, Japanese investors have net sold about 5.08 trillion yen in foreign bonds, the highest since 2022. This capital outflow could support the yen’s exchange rate and put pressure on bond markets that have long considered Japan a major buyer. Soaring energy costs have heightened inflation concerns, prompting the Federal Reserve (FED) and the European Central Bank to raise interest rates in September, which has further pressured global bond markets. Earlier this week, Japan's benchmark 10-year government bond yield rose to 3.122%, its highest in 30 years, increasing the appeal of domestic bonds. In September, led by the Bank of Japan, Japanese institutions sold a net 2.49 trillion yen in long-term foreign bonds, a seven-month high. Life insurance companies and investment trust managers also recorded net sales of 288.6 billion yen and 200.1 billion yen respectively. However, trust accounts net purchased 1.2 trillion yen in long-term foreign currency bonds, highlighting divergent investment strategies among Japanese institutional investors. Another Bank of Japan report showed that in the first eight months of this year, Japanese investors net sold 4.74 trillion yen in US Treasuries, while net purchasing 355.85 billion yen in European bonds. Within Europe, Japanese investors net bought 329.82 billion yen in Italian bonds, while net selling 208.59 billion yen and 94.25 billion yen in French and German bonds, respectively. (1 US dollar = 158.1400 yen)

路透社•2026/10/08 05:26
In September, Japanese investors withdrew from foreign bond markets for the second consecutive month.