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Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin Could Reach $1 Million in the Long Term, Driven by Its "Digital Gold" Status

Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin Could Reach $1 Million in the Long Term, Driven by Its "Digital Gold" Status

Odaily星球日报Odaily星球日报2026/03/10 23:23
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According to Odaily, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that the price of bitcoin could potentially reach $1 million per coin in the future. He believes that when viewed from the perspective of the global "Store of Value" market, bitcoin's long-term potential becomes even clearer, as it is gradually competing with gold for the position of digital store of value asset.

In his latest memo titled "How Bitcoin Gets to $1 Million," Hougan pointed out that the current global store of value market is about $38 trillion, of which approximately $36 trillion comes from gold, while bitcoin accounts for about $1.4 trillion, representing less than 4% of the market.

Hougan believes that many investors underestimate bitcoin's potential because they overlook the growth rate of the store of value market itself. For example, when the first gold ETF was launched in the United States in 2004, the global gold market was only about $2.5 trillion; today, it is close to $40 trillion, with a compound annual growth rate of about 13%. This growth has been mainly driven by increasing government debt, geopolitical uncertainty, and loose monetary policy.

If the store of value market continues to expand at a similar pace over the next decade, its size could reach about $121 trillion. In this scenario, bitcoin would only need to capture about 17% of the market share for its price to potentially reach $1 million.

Hougan also pointed out that the development of the crypto market in recent years has laid the foundation for this outlook. For example, just a few years ago, there were no spot bitcoin ETFs in the United States, whereas now spot bitcoin ETFs have become one of the fastest-growing ETF products in history. At the same time, institutional investors, including the Harvard University endowment fund and the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, have also begun allocating to bitcoin.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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In September, Japanese investors withdrew from foreign bond markets for the second consecutive month.

Reuters, October 8 – In September, Japanese investors became net sellers of foreign bonds for the second consecutive month, driven by rising borrowing costs in the US and Europe, as well as increasingly attractive domestic yields that prompted them to withdraw from overseas bond markets. Data released by Japan's Ministry of Finance on Tuesday showed that Japanese investors were net sellers of 969 billion yen ($613 million) in foreign bonds last month, which was lower than the previous month's net sales of 1.16 trillion yen. They net sold 1.43 trillion yen in long-term foreign currency bonds—a six-month high—while purchasing about 457 billion yen in short-term notes. The increase in Japanese interest rates is beginning to attract some of the country's vast overseas investments back home, marking a significant shift in global capital flows. Year to date, Japanese investors have net sold about 5.08 trillion yen in foreign bonds, the highest since 2022. This capital outflow could support the yen’s exchange rate and put pressure on bond markets that have long considered Japan a major buyer. Soaring energy costs have heightened inflation concerns, prompting the Federal Reserve (FED) and the European Central Bank to raise interest rates in September, which has further pressured global bond markets. Earlier this week, Japan's benchmark 10-year government bond yield rose to 3.122%, its highest in 30 years, increasing the appeal of domestic bonds. In September, led by the Bank of Japan, Japanese institutions sold a net 2.49 trillion yen in long-term foreign bonds, a seven-month high. Life insurance companies and investment trust managers also recorded net sales of 288.6 billion yen and 200.1 billion yen respectively. However, trust accounts net purchased 1.2 trillion yen in long-term foreign currency bonds, highlighting divergent investment strategies among Japanese institutional investors. Another Bank of Japan report showed that in the first eight months of this year, Japanese investors net sold 4.74 trillion yen in US Treasuries, while net purchasing 355.85 billion yen in European bonds. Within Europe, Japanese investors net bought 329.82 billion yen in Italian bonds, while net selling 208.59 billion yen and 94.25 billion yen in French and German bonds, respectively. (1 US dollar = 158.1400 yen)

路透社•2026/10/08 05:26
In September, Japanese investors withdrew from foreign bond markets for the second consecutive month.