OpenAI Backlog Shockwave: Are Investors Punishing Oracle, Microsoft And Broadcom Over Altman's Trillion-Dollar Compute Bet?
OpenAI's aggressive cloud and compute commitments are sending shockwaves through public markets, hammering key partners Oracle Corp., Microsoft Corp. , and Broadcom Inc. as investors reassess the risks of AI at any cost.
Oracle Takes The Biggest Hit
Oracle has been the lightning rod for OpenAI‑related fears, with its shares tumbling roughly 40% from late October highs as concerns mount over debt‑financed AI data centers and heavy exposure to OpenAI workloads.
The company has raised tens of billions of dollars to fund capacity and touted its role in training OpenAI models, but what was once seen as a transformative growth engine is now being questioned as potentially unsustainable.
"Maybe Oracle stock got way ahead of fundamentals and now the market's saying, alright, show me," Eric Diton of Wealth Alliance, told Bloomberg, capturing the new skepticism around the AI build‑out.
INSANE to think that $ORCL is down over 50% in just a few months.
— Sam Badawi (@samsolid57) February 15, 2026
Remember when Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, told Brad Gerstner in a defensive tone that his company deserved an excessive valuation? Since that interview, the market has stepped back from companies heavily tied to…
Microsoft's Backlog Raises Red Flags
Microsoft, long viewed as the primary financial and cloud beneficiary of OpenAI, is also under pressure as markets zoom in on its enormous AI backlog.
The company recently disclosed that its commercial cloud remaining performance obligations have surged to about $625 billion, with roughly 45% of that tied directly to OpenAI.
Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya called Microsoft "the worst‑performing stock of the hyperscalers since the Nov. 30, 2022, launch of ChatGPT," arguing that, judging by returns, "you'd have thought that Meta and not Microsoft was the one that owned 25% of OpenAI and ran the cloud for them."
"Microsoft has been the worst-performing stock of the hyperscalers since the November 30, 2022 launch of ChatGPT and has significantly underperformed the Nasdaq during that period"
— Chamath Palihapitiya (@chamath) February 12, 2026
Looking at this chart, you'd have thought that Meta and not Microsoft was the one that owned 25%…
Altman's Conviction Meets Market Doubt
Sam Altman's sharp retort to investor doubts in a Bg2 podcast on Nov. 1, 2025— "If you want to sell your shares, I'll find you a buyer" — now stands in stark contrast to the market's verdict, with OpenAI‑exposed partners posting steep declines in the months since his trillion‑dollar pledge.
| ORCL | Oct. 31 to Feb. 16 | 261.92 | 160.14 | −38.86% |
| MSFT | Oct. 31 to Feb. 16 | 516.84 | 401.32 | −22.35% |
| AVGO | Oct. 31 to Feb. 16 | 368.92 | 325.17 | −11.86% |
Those concerns intensified after OpenAI CEO Altman defended a planned 1.4 trillion‑dollar multiyear compute spend and snapping up capacity across Nvidia, AMD, Oracle and Azure.
"We do plan for revenue to grow steeply. Revenue is growing steeply," Altman insisted, adding that skeptics who worry about OpenAI's commitments could "sell your shares—I'll find you a buyer."
Yet as Oracle, Microsoft, and Broadcom all slide, the market's early verdict on that conviction is clear: OpenAI's backlog may be enormous, but the stocks most exposed to it are now paying the price.
Photo Courtesy: Meir Chaimowitz on Shutterstock
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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