Meta Muse goes viral but faces retention bottleneck: open rate below mainstream apps, long-term monetization faces challenges

Meta Platforms' AI agent Muse has seen strong download momentum since its launch, but the dual challenges of user retention and monetization are drawing market attention. BNP Paribas maintains a cautious outlook on its long-term monetization path, highlighting the common conversion dilemma for consumer AI applications from user acquisition to retention.

According to third-party data cited by BNP Paribas, since launching in September, Muse has accumulated over 5.6 million downloads, at one point topping the Apple App Store rankings. Its early U.S. market downloads even outpaced ChatGPT and Sora. However, analyst Nick Jones points out that while Muse’s app open rate has stabilized, it remains below that of established apps such as Google, ChatGPT, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook, indicating the product has yet to become a daily habit for users.

BNP Paribas maintains an "Outperform" rating on Meta, with a target price of $885, but has simultaneously revised down its expectations for Muse’s long-term monetization capability. Jones emphasized that whether Muse can convert initial hype into sustained activity, and how it will build a sustainable business model, remain core questions for investors. Meanwhile, OpenAI launched its new consumer AI product Dots this week, accelerating the evolution of the competitive landscape in the consumer AI market.

Social Ecosystem Drives Downloads, but Open Rates Reveal Retention Challenges

Muse’s impressive initial download figures were largely due to Meta’s extensive social platform ecosystem.

Jones noted that unlike standalone AI apps that must build a user base from scratch, Meta leverages its existing user coverage via Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook, providing Muse with a natural promotional channel and significantly lowering user acquisition costs. This distribution advantage enabled Muse to achieve higher download numbers in the U.S. market during its launch than ChatGPT and Sora.

It is noteworthy that OpenAI’s video generation app Sora went viral following its launch but has since been integrated into ChatGPT, no longer operating as a standalone product—an example highlighting the disconnect between early download surges and long-term product viability.

For Muse, the rapid accumulation of downloads has not been matched by high-frequency usage.

Jones points out that Muse's current open rate lags behind several mainstream apps, indicating that the product is still in the early stage of cultivating user habits, and is not yet a tool users rely on daily. The next key phase will shift from merely driving downloads to improving user retention, usage frequency, and long-term engagement.

Vertical Platforms Unaffected in Short Term, Feature Completeness Is Core Gap

As AI agents gradually acquire abilities such as information search, product comparison, and transaction execution, there is rising discussion over whether these products pose competitive threats to vertical services platforms like e-commerce and travel. BNP Paribas adopts a cautious stance toward this issue.

Jones believes that given Muse’s current limited user penetration and a lack of direct goods or services supply, complete transaction experience, and customer service capability typical of vertical platforms, it is unlikely to pose a substantial challenge in the short term. Specialized e-commerce or travel platforms not only provide search and recommendation but also have full systems for inventory, transaction processing, order management, and after-sales support—even if AI agents help users discover products, they may not be able to independently close the entire transaction loop.

Whether Muse can ultimately change consumer habits in shopping and service use will depend on Meta’s ability to continue refining relevant features and deepening cooperation with external merchants.

Monetization Path Remains Unclear, Advertising May Be Key to Growth

The commercialization route is another core reason why BNP Paribas remains cautious about Muse’s outlook.

Jones’ analysis notes that Muse currently monetizes partially by charging partners small transaction fees, while adopting a freemium model of free basic services with paid subscriptions—where the basic version is offered for free and high-demand users can pay monthly for expanded usage quotas.

This pricing strategy helps Meta expand its user base and boost participation in the early development stage of the product rather than prematurely maximizing revenue. Nevertheless, Jones emphasizes that Muse’s long-term monetization capability remains an important uncertainty for investors.

BNP Paribas believes that drawing on Meta's extensive experience in digital advertising, as Muse’s user engagement continues to rise, advertising may become an attractive commercial direction in the future, with revenue streams gradually shifting from subscriptions and transaction commissions to advertising. However, since user habits are not yet well established, whether such business models will generate significant income remains to be confirmed by the market.

OpenAI Dots Launched, Consumer AI Competition Rapidly Upgrades

The competitive landscape in the consumer AI agent market is rapidly evolving. Jones paid particular attention to OpenAI’s newly launched product Dots this week, believing that the extent to which it gains user recognition in the future will be an important indicator of the direction of market competition. Meanwhile, the market is also watching to see whether tech companies like Alphabet will launch competitive counterpart products.

BNP Paribas expects that as more and more companies explore the use of AI to perform complex tasks, competition in the consumer AI agent market will gradually expand from model performance to additional dimensions such as product experience, user retention, service integration, and commercialization capability.

For Meta, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook constitute a substantial user distribution advantage, though whether this innate edge will continuously translate into usage growth for Muse still requires further time and data to validate.