US GDP Growth Surges, Rate Cut Fears May Become "Illusion", Probability of 25 Basis Point Rate Cut in January Drops to 13.3%

BlockBeats News, December 23, according to CME "FedWatch" data, after the release of today's U.S. macroeconomic data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year has dropped to 13.3%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 86.7%. Last week, the probability of a Fed rate cut in January had risen to 31%. The inflation-adjusted U.S. real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate for the third quarter recorded 4.3%. U.S. GDP growth surged, marking the strongest pace since the fourth quarter of 2023.

The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged until March next year is 54.4%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 40.7%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 4.9%.

The next two FOMC meeting dates are January 28, 2026, and March 18, 2026, respectively.