Gold is set for three consecutive weeks of gains, with the atmosphere of a new bull market in full swing! The U.S. Treasury repurchases government bonds, triggering a "dual-engine" for gold prices.

According to Zhitong Finance APP, the U.S. Treasury unexpectedly intensified its repurchase of long-term Treasury bonds, highlighting concerns in global financial markets about its debt burden. As a result, spot and futures trading prices for gold are poised to achieve three consecutive weeks of gains. For the price curve of this precious metal, gold is now benefitting from a “dual-path upside” structure triggered by the U.S. government’s repurchase of 10-year and longer-dated Treasuries—profiting from lower opportunity costs when risk-free yields decline, and gaining credit premiums when yields lose control. In early Asian trading on Friday, spot gold remained firmly above the crucial $4,500 per ounce level, following a surge of more than 4% in a single session on Wednesday, prompting long-term gold bulls to exclaim: “The familiar gold bull market from half a year ago is finally back.”

With spot gold trading near $4,530 per ounce, this week’s cumulative gain is expected to exceed 3%. Although 30-year U.S. Treasury yields recovered to around 5.27% during Thursday’s session—almost entirely erasing the price drop after the Treasury’s increased buyback announcement—the strong injection of liquidity by the U.S. Treasury on Wednesday Eastern Time continues to uplift gold prices and bullish sentiment, thanks to a sustained “long-end yield decline + weaker dollar” intervention and growing risk aversion demand.

On Thursday Eastern Time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the Treasury is constantly ready to increase buybacks of debt with higher comprehensive financing costs and revealed that the government would soon announce a fiscal measure to address benchmark borrowing costs in the Treasury market, which have reached multi-year highs.

Repurchasing long-term Treasuries itself is not Federal Reserve quantitative easing (QE) and does not reduce U.S. government debt. Nevertheless, Treasury bailouts for Treasuries have become a new catalyst for the gold bull market.

The real significant impact for this new gold bull cycle is on market expectations for the Federal Reserve and U.S. government policy response: when investors believe authorities will deploy more aggressive dollar issuing, lower real rates, or actively manage debt maturities to prevent long-term financing costs from spiraling, the future distribution of gold prices—driven by a depreciating dollar and falling 10-year and long-term risk-free yields—will show clear upward skewness.

Market Debt Anxiety Combines with Hormuz Turmoil: Gold Surges 11% MoM, New Bull Market Ready to Ignite

Although yields on 10-year and longer-dated Treasuries recovered most of their declines from the buyback move during the latter half of the week, the action underscored market concerns over the U.S. government’s rapidly growing debt. As investors widely seek alternative safe havens, persistent fiscal deficit worries across Western nations—which have long fueled multiyear gold rallies—remain a crucial underlying factor.

As shown above, gold prices appear set for a third straight week of gains.

The U.S. Treasury raised the single-operation liquidity support repurchase limit for 10- to 30-year Treasuries from $200 million to at least $400 million, initially driving 30-year yields down about 9–10 basis points, pushing the dollar lower and gold higher. But as yields later recouped much of the decline, it suggests that buybacks can only improve old bond liquidity—they neither cancel government debt nor resolve fiscal deficits, interest costs, or the AI-driven record-breaking bond issuance by large tech firms that crowds out long-term funds.

Thus, the positive market effects of Treasury intervention rapidly faded, instead exposing to global investors the vulnerability of long-dated Treasuries’ need for official support and reinforcing themes of “fiscal dominance” and “sovereign currency debasement trade”: authorities may be more willing to tolerate persistent dollar weakness and marginal easing of financial conditions to suppress unsustainable financing costs. However, this “saving Treasuries equals abandoning the dollar” notion should be understood as a trading logic, not an official U.S. policy abandonment of a strong dollar.

This creates for gold an uncommon dual-path upside structure: if expanded buybacks push down real rates and the dollar, holding non-yielding gold becomes less costly in terms of opportunity; if buybacks fail and long-dated yields climb amid fiscal risk, gold benefits as a hedge against sovereign credit. Gold is currently around $4,530 per ounce and is likely to rise for the third consecutive week, with a monthly increase of around 11%.

So far this month, gold has risen about 11%. However, the broad inflation and rate hike speculation triggered by the rebound in energy prices could cap further gains, since inflation risks and bets on monetary tightening persist.

U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to devastate Iran’s economy, further dampening prospects of a short-term agreement and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Combined with ongoing Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia, which have sharply reduced shipping through the other crucial Middle East energy corridor—the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait—crude oil prices are set for a significant weekly surge. The White House said it will unveil further details on the plan on Monday.

Since mid-July, gold has held above the key $4,000 per ounce support; previously, war-driven declines sent gold into bear territory in June, followed by a wave of dip-buying. Gold remains about 15% lower than pre–late-February levels before the U.S.-Iran conflict erupted.

As of 8:11 a.m. Singapore time, spot gold was up 0.2% at $4,522.90 per ounce. Silver gained 0.1% to $68.16 per ounce. Platinum and palladium also posted gains. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, measuring the dollar’s strength, fell 0.1%.

For precious metals investors, caution is warranted regarding this path: if inflation forces the Federal Reserve to tighten policy more than expected, resulting in a sustained rise in real yields and the dollar, gold could remain under pressure; but as long as yield gains are mainly driven by fiscal credit risk instead of genuine growth, gold may break the traditional “higher yields, lower gold” logic and instead benefit both from declining opportunity costs and credit premiums.

Is the Familiar Gold Bull Market Back? Gold Reclaims $4,500, Wall Street Targets Cluster at $4,900–$6,000

With spot gold consolidating above the $4,000 level since mid-July and recently holding firm above $4,500, the rally now reflects more than just a post–U.S.-Iran conflict technical rebound—it signals a structural revaluation driven by U.S. debt breaching $40 trillion, policy interventions on the long-end yield curve, and ongoing global reserve diversification.

The Treasury’s expanded repurchase of 10–30 year Treasuries has provided gold with an upside-skewed “dual-path” benefit structure. The first path is effective policy: the Treasury absorbs long-duration risk, pushes down nominal and real yields, and weakens the dollar, thus reducing the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield gold. The second path is policy failure: if buybacks only temporarily suppress yields before a renewed long-bond sell-off, the market will further reprice fiscal deficits, term premiums, and dollar debasement, leading to higher risk premiums for gold as a non-sovereign reserve asset. Following this buyback, yields and the dollar dropped while gold spiked, with long-dated yields rebounding soon after—validating both bullish rationales in sequence.

Wall Street targets are moving upward in sync: Citi strategist Dirk Willer predicts gold will reach $5,000–$6,000 per ounce within the next year, supported by Treasury intervention, runaway term premium risk, a weak dollar, and renewed “de-dollarization” trades. Deutsche Bank’s year-end base case is $4,700–$5,100 per ounce, resting on two price-insensitive demand pillars—central bank buying and ETF inflows. Gold ETFs saw net inflows of about 1.5 million ounces over the past 30 days and roughly 4 million ounces year-to-date, while central bank purchases in Q1 2026 reached $38.88 billion. Notably, the $6,400 figure in Deutsche Bank’s model represents a statistical upside scenario, not a formal base target.

Dubbed “Wall Street’s most accurate strategist,” Michael Hartnett of Bank of America leads a team recommending long gold as “the best trade right now.” This aligns with Deutsche Bank’s call for “an explosive gold rally” and other bullish Wall Street logic, all centered on one structural theme: the U.S. government’s runaway debt, $1.4 trillion in interest, and AI firm bond issuance combine to soak up long-term capital and push term premiums higher. When yields rise to threaten fiscal sustainability and risk assets, policymakers must again push down financing costs, making gold the hedge for the “bond value loss–policy intervention–dollar purchasing power decline” cycle.

Michael Hartnett considers long gold optimal for hedging dollar depreciation, bond disorder, and asset inflation, based on the premise that U.S. debt could approach $50 trillion by around 2029, while AI’s financing frenzy further siphons institutional funds from Treasuries.

From the perspective of giants like Bank of America and Deutsche Bank, gold is probably entering a new leg in its long-term structural bull market; however, one cannot conclude a straight-line rally has restarted just from a one-day surge. Should Mideast geopolitics spiral further, causing energy inflation so severe that the Fed is forced into successive rate hikes and real yields climb again, gold could still pull back toward the $3,900 support region.

Wall Street’s long-term bullish targets for gold share the same direction but vary in magnitude: Deutsche Bank’s latest year-end range is $4,700–$5,100; Goldman Sachs, even after a more hawkish rate outlook, maintains a year-end target of $4,900; Bank of America’s 2026 bullish target is $5,000; Morgan Stanley and UBS expect gold to reach $5,200 by the second half of this year or in the next 12 months; and J.P. Morgan foresees a Q4 2026 average of $6,000. With a $4,500 base, these targets imply 4% to 33% potential upside. $4,700 may be the first target zone, $5,000–$5,100 the core validation area, and $6,000 would require further dollar weakness, accelerated ETF inflows, fiscal deficit expansion, or severe deterioration in AI-related credit risks.