Bitcoin trades below 50-day EMA as ETF inflows reach $189 million

ETF inflows signal renewed institutional interest

US spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds recorded net inflows of $189.3 million on Tuesday, according to data from CoinGlass. This marked the second straight day of positive flows, underscoring renewed interest among institutional investors. Sustained ETF inflows could bolster buying momentum and help Bitcoin extend its latest recovery. On the other hand, persistent outflows would likely diminish institutional support, leaving Bitcoin more vulnerable to shifts in broader market sentiment.

This demand comes as Bitcoin attempts to regain traction after a period spent below key technical benchmarks. Investors are watching closely for macroeconomic updates, particularly the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes set for release Wednesday, to gauge how policymakers assess inflation, growth, and the future path of interest rates.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs registered $189.3 million in net inflows on Tuesday, bringing a second consecutive day of positive momentum as institutions gradually return to the market.

Market awaits FOMC Minutes as inflation concerns grow

Rising energy prices have reawakened inflation concerns and raised the stakes of the upcoming FOMC Minutes. At the last meeting, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate between 3.50% and 3.75%. Notably, three voting members dissented in favor of an increase, highlighting diverging perspectives within the committee over monetary policy. A hawkish set of minutes suggesting additional tightening could strengthen the US Dollar and push Treasury yields higher, adding pressure to Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets. Conversely, minutes hinting that officials see no need for further hikes could improve liquidity expectations and support cryptocurrencies.

Analysts suggest that markets are more likely to react to the Fed’s commentary about future financial conditions than to the current rate setting alone. If the minutes reinforce expectations for a tighter stance, Bitcoin could face renewed headwinds. A more cautious or dovish tone from policymakers, however, might prompt investors to revisit a liquidity-driven bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency.

Geopolitical tensions and oil prices add to volatility

Geopolitical risks are adding uncertainty, particularly as crude oil prices climbed to a nearly three-week high due to ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump stated that the US is not negotiating with Iran and confirmed the naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in place. He also shared a map on Truth Social marking the Strait of Hormuz as new US territory. Meanwhile, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf insisted the waterway would stay closed until the US complies with expired terms from a previous memorandum. As a result, elevated energy costs may feed into inflation and complicate the Federal Reserve’s ability to ease policy.

Rising energy prices and mounting geopolitical tensions through the Strait of Hormuz are sustaining a risk premium in oil markets, which could be transmitted into broader inflation challenges for central banks and risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Technical outlook: Key levels and price structure

Technically, Bitcoin holds just below its 50-day EMA, with a mild bullish bias indicated by a Relative Strength Index near 56. A positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence reading shows buying momentum is building, though there is no clear sign of a breakout.

The first significant resistance appears at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, positioned at $65,547, based on the swing from the May 26 peak of $78,080 to the 2026 low of $57,800 on July 1. Above that threshold, sellers may materialize near the 100-day EMA at $66,334 and the horizontal resistance at $66,500. A sustained daily close above $66,500 would further strengthen the bullish scenario and could pave the way to the 50% retracement at $67,940. The broader trend ceiling remains at the 200-day EMA of $71,451.

Meanwhile, support is found at the 50-day EMA. If Bitcoin closes below $64,376, the outlook could weaken, opening the door to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $62,586 and additional support at $62,300. Market direction will likely depend on forthcoming ETF flow data and the market’s interpretation of the Fed’s tone.

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