CPI Drops Tonight — Can It Cool Hike Expectations?

After August PPI came in at 5.4% year over year above consensus, an October hike is now fully priced. August CPI follows tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, with consensus at +0.4% month over month on the headline and +0.2% on core. Core is the dividing line. A print above 0.2% reinforces the tightening case; in line or below gives risk assets some room to recover. The pass-through from PPI to CPI runs with a lag and the two indexes use different baskets, so a firm PPI doesn't mechanically mean CPI follows. Rate expectations, long-end yields and oil prices are all elevated at the same time — a combination that weighs on tech stocks, gold and crypto across the board. Tonight's CPI may be the last data point before the September meeting that can actually shift the probabilities. Do you expect a September hike or a hold? Flexibly allocate across core U.S. tech equities and diversified RWA portfolios on Bitget — achieve efficient cross-asset allocation and precision risk hedging: https://www.bitget.com/promotion/futures-rwa