Iran warns the US: Even a "limited" resumption of bombing will plunge the world into a serious energy crisis

Iranian military and diplomatic officials have issued intensive warnings of escalating conflict, directly linking the potential resumption of U.S. bombing operations to disruptions in global energy supplies, causing market concerns over the security of the Strait of Hormuz to spike. After two oil tankers caught fire following attacks in the strait, the energy market is under pressure to reassess whether supply interruption risks are adequately priced in.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) spokesperson Hossein Mohebbi stated explicitly on Monday, the 19th, local time: “Even if U.S. actions are limited, the world will face a severe energy crisis.” This is one of the most direct statements so far by Iranian officials linking military conflict to shocks in the energy market. The day before, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi warned U.S. President Trump on social media that Iran has “unfinished business,” hinting that Iran does not rule out taking further proactive measures.

These warnings, combined with the oil tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, are transmitting pressure to the energy market from multiple dimensions: expectations of disrupted oil supplies, rising maritime insurance costs, and the tail risk of further escalation of regional military confrontation. Although talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz are still underway, Iran’s simultaneous release of tough signals has made the outlook for negotiations highly uncertain.

IRGC and Foreign Minister Issue Simultaneous Escalation Warnings

In his statement on Monday, Mohebbi said that most U.S. bases in the region have been forced to evacuate, and their troops are “exhausted,” positioned several hundred kilometers from Iran, lacking both the technical and military capacity to initiate new conflict.

He also warned, “If the region becomes unsafe for Iran, there will be no safety for the entire region,” stressing that Iran’s response “will be far harsher than before.”

On Sunday, Araghchi responded to Trump’s statements about resuming bombings in a more provocative tone on social media: “Last time you tried to 'finish the job,' Iran grew stronger. Want to try your luck again? Go ahead. But be careful, we also have unfinished business.”

He also described Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu as a driving force dragging the United States into a new war, linking his motives to the upcoming Israeli elections and his personal judicial troubles.

On Sunday, Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Major General Ali Abdollahi also issued a warning, claiming that Tehran has withstood months of U.S. strikes and that any further attacks would meet with “even more aggressive retaliation.”

Hormuz Tanker Attacks Test Energy Market Pricing

The direct backdrop to these dense warnings is the IRGC’s claim that it struck two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz attempting to pass through “unauthorized” routes, stating the ships caught fire after hitting mines. This is the latest maritime safety incident in the strait, directly impacting market expectation for the security of this corridor that handles about one-fifth of global oil transit.

Mohebbi’s statement that “even limited actions will trigger a global energy crisis” is, in effect, sending a clear signal to the market: the blockade or severe disruption of the Strait of Hormuz is not an impossible extreme scenario, but a real option Iran can utilize. This assertion places direct pressure on oil price risk premia, shipping insurance rates, and import countries’ energy security assessments.

Currently, the core issue facing the energy market is whether previous pricing has fully reflected the probability of interruption in the Hormuz corridor. After the tanker attack, shipping insurance costs have risen, but analysts need to assess whether Iran’s latest statement—explicitly tying military escalation to energy crises—signifies a substantial increase in risk margins or remains a form of deterrence for use as a bargaining chip in negotiations.

Hormuz Reopening Negotiations Parallel Hardline Statements

It is notable that while hardline military warnings are being issued in quick succession, diplomatic channels have not been completely shut down.

According to CCTV citing Iran’s Tasnim News Agency on Sunday, the 18th, Araghchi said in a media interview that Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is still on the negotiating table. He previously stated that Iran had conveyed related proposals to the U.S. via Qatar, and if the U.S. took necessary actions, normal transit through the Strait of Hormuz could resume within seven days.

Meanwhile, it is reported that Pakistani Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir is expected to visit Tehran again this week. It is widely believed that his visit will convey Washington’s latest position, but it remains unclear whether there are still substantive proposals on the negotiating table.

This dual-track attitude of “negotiation alongside deterrence” makes it difficult for the market to form a clear prediction of the situation’s trajectory. While Iran maintains diplomatic avenues, it is also sending continuous escalation signals via military officials—this strategic ambiguity is itself a source of market uncertainty.

Domestic Hardline Consensus in Iran Grows Stronger

While military and diplomatic officials issue warnings, Iran’s political hardline stance is simultaneously being reinforced at home.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian President Pezeshkian spoke at parliament on Sunday, the 18th, stressing that Iran “will never yield to the unreasonable demands and bullying of aggressive countries,” and stating that the government and armed forces are working to strengthen defense capabilities.

Xinhua reported that Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei said on social media on the 18th that Iran’s armed forces have prepared responses to any new “adventurous actions,” whose destructive power “will far exceed the past,” and emphasized that “Iran’s new operational plans will no longer follow the rules familiar to the other side.”

Xinhua also mentioned that the Iranian army’s website issued a statement on the 18th responding to recent U.S. threats of using the so-called “Mother of All Bombs,” saying that Iran’s armed forces are fully prepared and ready to respond to any threat at any time.

The above threat refers to reports by U.S. media outlet CNN on the 15th, citing multiple U.S. officials, that the U.S. military has developed a new plan against Iran, which includes considering the use of the large air-dropped bomb known as the “Mother of All Bombs” to strike Iranian nuclear facilities.

In addition, on the 18th, the Supreme Leader’s advisor Mohammed Mokhber stated that Tehran’s “deterrence” has prevented the U.S. and Israel from “using their full capabilities,” warning that if the U.S. launches another attack, Iran will seek to escalate the conflict into a regional war.

These statements indicate that Iranian internal political consensus for a hardline response has become highly unified, which, to some extent, reduces the space for Iran to make substantive concessions during negotiations.