ING: Strengthening US dollar and high natural gas prices limit the upward potential of Central and Eastern European currencies

智通财经2026/10/15 12:06

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(1) Analysts at ING Group stated that the US dollar remains strong and natural gas prices are at historical highs, making it difficult for Central and Eastern European currencies to continue their upward momentum. (2) Among them, the Polish zloty is particularly under pressure, mainly because the National Bank of Poland maintains a cautious stance on interest rate hikes, with most policy committee members believing that the earliest the topic will be discussed is December. (3) The Polish government's resident fuel price cap policy might be extended, which could support the central bank in further delaying tightening; the euro is currently trading at 4.367 against the zloty, with the price remaining basically flat.

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Despite the U.S. September PPI posting its largest monthly increase in four years and retail sales exceeding expectations—factors that should have bolstered the dollar—risk aversion triggered by a sell-off in AI-related assets led to a flight to U.S. Treasuries, pushing yields lower and weighing on the dollar. As a result, the dollar fell by 0.3% on Thursday. Analysts noted that the dollar is closely linked to AI capital expenditures, and if the market grows concerned about the peak of AI investments, the dollar would be the first to take a hit.

华尔街见闻•2026/10/16 00:38