Texas Roadhouse Stock Called a Buy. Why Steak Is Back on the Menu. -- Barrons.com

By Janet H. Cho

Texas Roadhouse's stock could rise 16% based on two encouraging signs, according to Jefferies, which specifically cited a more resilient environment for experiential dining and easing beef price inflation.

The analysts said that Texas Roadhouse, a casual dining chain known for its steaks and southwestern fare, is "well positioned" to benefit from the trends, noting its "solid track record around quality and consistency of execution."

Jefferies analyst Andy Barish raised his rating on the stock to Buy, from Hold, and moved his price target to $190 a share, from $186. That implies a 16% gain from the current price.

Texas Roadhouse stock was up 1.8%, at $165.11, at around 2:30 p.m. Eastern time. The analyst's report came out before the consumer price index for September showed certain beef prices easing from August levels.

Jefferies expects "a more resilient casual dining" environment, with Texas Roadhouse able to maintain its dining share and sustain its traffic momentum in the low single-digit-percentage range.

People still budget for dining-out experiences at restaurants, and the analysts note that same-store sales in the casual dining category have been above the industry average through 2026. "These occasions are more difficult to replace/replicate at home," they said, versus quick-serve restaurants or food eaten at home.

Stabilization in beef pricing may also be a factor. "While it may be too soon to call a 'turn' in the cattle cycle, we see room for beef costs to sustain at or slightly more favorable levels," Barish wrote. Feedlots and cattle inventory remain at healthy levels, Mexican cattle imports have resumed, and retail consumption is projected to decline 1.2% next year, compared with a 0.3% decline this year, according to the U.S.D.A.

The consumer price index for September released Wednesday morning said that the price of uncooked ground beef for home consumption had risen 5.4% from a year ago, but was down 1.3% in September from August. The price of uncooked beef steak was up 2.7% from last year, but down 0.8% from August.

The price of full-service meals eaten outside the home had risen 3.8% year over year, and 0.3% in September from August.

Jefferies also sees "easing beef inflation" as a potential source of incremental growth in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization next year and beyond, "creating a path to stock upside without needing to stretch the multiple."

Texas Roadhouse stock is up 4.8% this month, but down 1.3% year to date and down 5% over the past 12 months.

The company will report third-quarter financial results on Nov. 5.

Texas Roadhouse, based in Louisville, Kentucky, is the casual restaurant chain whose brands include Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, Jaggers, and others. It operates 840 restaurants in 49 states, one U.S. territory, and 10 foreign countries.

Write to Janet H. Cho at janet.cho@dowjones.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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October 14, 2026 15:10 ET (19:10 GMT)