EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Gains ground below 177.50, but stays bearish below 100-day SMA
The EUR/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 177.30 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower against the Euro (EUR) on a cautious Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate outlook. Traders will closely monitor the speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.
Bloomberg reported that BoJ policymakers are leaning against a rare back-to-back interest rate increase this month while still eyeing the possibility of another move as soon as December. The source said the Japanese central bank will instead carefully examine economic data to see if another hike is warranted as early as the December gathering.
Pricing in the overnight swaps market showed that traders are pricing in nearly a 10% chance of a rate hike this month, with the probability rising to 88% for a move by December, according to Bloomberg.
Technical Analysis: EUR/JPY keeps a bearish vibe under the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, EUR/JPY maintains a bearish near-term bias as spot holds decisively under the Bollinger middle band and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). Price also stays below the Bollinger upper band, underscoring a capped tone, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 36.41 remains subdued but above oversold territory, hinting at weak selling pressure rather than an exhausted downtrend.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the Bollinger middle band / 20-period SMA near 178.45, en route to the 180.00 psychological level. A desicive break above this level could pave the way to the upper boundary of Bollinger band at 181.05 and the 100-day SMA at 183.05 as a stronger structural barrier.
On the downside, initial support level is located at the lower limit of Bollinger band around 175.90. The next contention level is located at the October 20 low, 2025 of 175.34, followed by the October 2, 2025 low of 172.27.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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