C.H. Robinson Shares May Stay 'Range-Bound' Near Term Amid Leverage Concerns, Deutsche Bank Says in Downgrade

02:15 PM EDT, 10/12/2026 (MT Newswires) -- C.H. Robinson Worldwide's (CHRW) share price may stay "range-bound" in the near term amid investor concerns around elevated leverage and the company's ability to address potential worries tied to its proposed acquisition of RXO (RXO), Deutsche Bank said Monday. Last week, C.H. Robinson agreed to acquire RXO in a cash-and-stock deal worth roughly $5.8 billion to create a more than $25 billion third-party logistics provider. Deutsche Bank on Monday downgraded its rating on the C.H. Robinson stock to hold from buy, saying the shares could remain "range-bound" in the near term as investors evaluate the implications of the company's substantial increase in leverage, especially amid elevated concerns around leverage across the broader market. C.H. Robinson may have limited opportunity to offer proof that addresses investor concerns related to the RXO deal, according to the brokerage. "For example, the expected synergy ramp appears steep to us, but the company will have limited ability to demonstrate otherwise until the deal closes and integration begins," Deutsche Bank analyst Richa Harnain said in a note to clients. "We also see initial workforce/customer-perception and technology-integration risks, both of which commonly accompany large-scale M&A in transportation." C.H. Robinson shares were down 1.4% in Monday afternoon and have fallen nearly 13% so far this year. The deal is expected to close in the first half of next year, subject to RXO shareholder approval and other conditions. Deutsche Bank said the downgrade reflects near-term risk rather than a lack of confidence in company management. "Despite our move to hold, we do want to emphasize how we do see potential for (C.H. Robinson) to extract significant value from the RXO franchise, drawing on the operating discipline demonstrated since management initiated a wholesale, ground-up transformation of (C.H. Robinson) through the company's lean AI strategy in 2023," Harnain wrote. C.H. Robinson has cut roughly 36% of its North American Surface Transportation workforce since 2022, while its top-line has remained "effectively flat," the analyst said. The deal presents a "meaningful" cost-reduction opportunity because RXO's workforce is about 40% larger than C.H. Robinson's NAST workforce, despite its truck brokerage revenue base being 60% smaller, according to Deutsche Bank. "Therefore, we understand management's confidence in its $300 million synergy target, which could allow the deal to nearly pay for itself," Harnain said. "At (C.H. Robinson's) current multiple of roughly 13x, the synergies alone would create value approaching RXO's pre-deal equity capitalization." In the broader industry, rival freight and logistics company Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) reported a 32% year-over-year increase in second-quarter revenue to $3.50 billion in August, led by airfreight services. Price: 140.07, Change: -2.24, Percent Change: -1.57