CFTC Position Analysis: US Treasury Shorts Significantly Increase, Crude Oil Longs Cool Down, Precious Metals and Copper Retrace Together, Market Sentiment Quietly Shifts

Huitong Network, October 10—— The latest CFTC report shows that for the week ending October 6th, speculative short positions in US Treasury futures at the short end increased significantly, with 2-year and 5-year net shorts rising to 852,900 and 1,163,500 contracts respectively, while the long end narrowed. Net long positions in WTI crude oil were reduced by nearly 20,000 contracts, and net short positions in natural gas expanded to 111,800 contracts. In the foreign exchange market, euro, pound sterling, and Swiss franc remained net short, while yen turned net long. Equity index fund managers slightly increased net long positions, while speculators added to shorts. Gold, silver, and copper speculative net longs all retreated simultaneously. Overall, the landscape shows caution towards short-term interest rates and a conservative stance on risk assets.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission released its positioning report for the week ending October 6th on Friday (October 9th), revealing the latest asset allocation trajectories of speculative funds across rates, energy, forex, equity indices, and metals markets. In general, the bond market showed significant divergence: shorts in short- and medium-term Treasury futures increased sharply, while shorts in long- and ultra-long-term Treasury futures were reduced; in the energy market, WTI crude oil longs retreated while natural gas shorts increased; in the forex market, euro, pound, and Swiss franc remained net short, and yen sustained net long; within US equity funds, fund managers and speculators diverged in their positions; and speculative long positions in precious metals and copper shrank in tandem.

1. Treasury Futures: Increased Shorts in Short- and Medium-Term, Short Covering at Long End

In the Treasury futures segment, speculative funds did not move in a unified direction. CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures saw speculative net shorts increase by 60,880 contracts to 852,904, indicating that the outlook for short-term rates remains bearish for some capital. Net short positions in CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures increased by 167,830 contracts to 1,163,531, making it the most prominent contract for short accumulation in this cycle.

Meanwhile, CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short positions fell by 4,134 contracts to 896,481; CBOT US ultra-long-term Treasury futures net shorts fell by 50,097 contracts to 276,339; and overall CBOT US Treasury futures net shorts were reduced by 67,063 contracts to 119,812. In general, short- and medium-term Treasury futures continue to face short-side pressure, while signs of short covering are evident at the long and ultra-long end.

2. Energy Market: WTI Longs Cut, Natural Gas Shorts Increased

In the energy market, crude oil and natural gas showed diverging trends. Speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil were reduced by 19,516 contracts to 111,635, reflecting a cooling bullish sentiment among long funds. In natural gas, the combined NYMEX and ICE four main market speculative net shorts increased by 30,679 contracts to 111,835, indicating stronger bearish pressures. Together, this suggests sentiment within the energy sector is split: crude oil longs are cutting back, while natural gas faces increased short-side pressure.

3. Forex Market: Net Shorts in Euro, Pound, Franc; Yen Net Long

The trend of divergence continued in the forex market. Swiss franc net shorts stood at 23,740 contracts, pound sterling net shorts at 97,611 contracts, and euro net shorts at 99,332 contracts, all remaining net short, with euro and sterling shorts being relatively larger in size.

In contrast, yen net long positions were at 62,325 contracts, making it one of the few major currencies still favored by speculative long capital. This set of data reveals that as of the week ending October 6th, there were clear internal differences in strength among the non-US currencies, with yen longs appearing especially resolute.

4. Equity Index Futures: Fund Managers Bullish, Speculators Bearish

In equity index futures, CME S&P 500 fund manager net longs increased by 3,101 contracts to 904,356, showing fund managers still maintain relatively large long allocations. However, at the same time, CME S&P 500 speculative net shorts increased by 41,003 contracts to 396,700. The divergence in direction between fund managers and speculators indicates an expanding gap between institutional allocation power and speculative trading power.

5. Precious Metals and Copper: Simultaneous Long Reductions, Copper Most Notable

In the metals market, COMEX gold speculative net longs were reduced by 9,599 contracts to 114,820; COMEX silver speculative net longs were reduced by 129 contracts to 7,608; COMEX copper speculative net longs were reduced by 17,244 contracts to 61,465. All saw contractions in long positions, with copper experiencing the largest reduction, highlighting a more pronounced cooling in bullish sentiment in industrial metals.

This CFTC report for the week ending October 6th outlines a rebalancing across markets: bond short positions increasing in the short- and medium-term, and covering in the long- and ultra-long-term; reduced crude oil longs, stronger natural gas shorts; forex markets show euro, pound, and franc remaining net short, while yen is net long; broader divergence between long and short positions within US equity funds; and simultaneous reduction of long positions in precious metals and copper. The shifts in overall positioning reflect speculators’ ongoing reallocation among asset classes, and if this trend continues, it could further impact interest rates, exchange rates, as well as energy and metals prices going forward.