Copper prices approach historic highs! UBS remains bullish: "Still most optimistic"

London copper futures closed on Friday near their all-time highs, as multiple Wall Street institutions have issued warnings: global copper supply continues to shrink, and prices may rise again.

Théa Ziegler, a member of UBS’s U.S. Equities Advisory Sales team, wrote in a report on Friday: “Copper remains one of our highest conviction commodity themes.” She pointed out that demand growth from electrification and data center construction is expected to continue to outpace supply growth, maintaining the structural support for copper prices.

Electrification, data center construction, and ongoing supply constraints will continue to support copper’s long-term constructive outlook. The core takeaway for investors is: over the coming years, supply growth is expected to lag behind demand growth, supporting copper prices at high levels—even though tariffs and trade policy continue to introduce short-term uncertainty.

On Friday, copper closed at about $14,622 per ton.

Théa Ziegler believes that the copper supply gap will persist into the early 2030s. Meanwhile, two key variables—strikes at Chilean mines and critically low global inventories—are combining to further tighten market balances.

Chilean Strikes Sound Supply Alarm

Natalia Corfield, Head of Latin America Corporate Credit Research at JPMorgan, pointed out this week that a strike has broken out at the Centinela copper mine in Chile. Centinela is one of Antofagasta’s main copper assets in Chile.

According to Bloomberg, two unions behind the labor action have warned that, if the strike persists, Centinela could begin reducing copper output in as little as two weeks.

This development adds a new variable to an already tight supply situation in the copper market.

Inventories Drop to Extremely Low Levels, Deutsche Bank Raises Target Price

Daniel Ghali, Head of Metals Research at Deutsche Bank, warned last month that global copper inventories have fallen to “unprecedented lows,” partly due to stockpiling by the U.S. and China squeezing supplies in other regions.

Ghali raised the target price for London copper futures in Q2 2027 to $22,050 per ton.

Against this backdrop, Ziegler said the UBS team remains optimistic about mining stocks with high leverage to copper prices. She wrote: “Our top picks include Freeport-McMoRan, First Quantum, Hudbay, and Teck Resources. All four companies are seen as well-positioned to benefit from the expected multi-year copper upcycle driven by structural demand and constrained supply responses.”