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(1) According to quotations, Urals crude currently has a premium of about $10 per barrel over spot Brent, inferred to be the landed price at Indian ports. (2) Meanwhile, institutional assessments show that in early October, Urals crude FOB from Russian ports was trading at a discount of around $35 per barrel, compared to about $29.5 per barrel in September. (3) These discount changes have undoubtedly been affected by the general increase in shipping costs, but the net price is still about $92 per barrel. (4) There is no single price for Urals crude; various quotations appear to come from unnamed traders. (5) Despite the threat of new U.S. sanctions, global demand for Russian or other origin crude, particularly those with higher diesel yields—such as Urals and ESPO blend crude—remains relatively resilient. (6) From a logical perspective, the divergence in quotations reflects multiple pricing factors, including transportation, sanctions, and quality differences, while the strong demand for crudes with high diesel yields provides underlying support. (7) Looking ahead, key areas of focus include the enforcement intensity of sanctions, the direction of shipping costs, and changes in the purchasing pace of major buyers such as India.

(1) U.S. natural gas futures rose by about 2% on Thursday, hitting a two-week high as energy companies reduced pipeline deliveries in the Gulf of Mexico and this week's demand forecasts were revised upward. (2) The front-month natural gas contract for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange increased by 7.4 cents, or roughly 2.3%, to $3.277 per million British thermal units, set to post the highest close since September 24 for a second consecutive day. (3) This also marks the fifth straight day of gains for the front-month contract, the first such streak since May, with a cumulative increase of around 10%. (4) The market is also awaiting the Federal inventory report, with analysts expecting energy companies to have injected about 7.9 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ending October 2. (5) This forecast is below the five-year average of around 9.6 billion cubic feet for the same period and slightly above last year’s 7.7 billion cubic feet. (6) The U.S. National Hurricane Center expects Hurricane Isaias to make landfall late Friday near the border of Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. (7) While the storm could boost gas prices by cutting Gulf production, analysts point out that such weather events are more likely to lower prices and demand by forcing closures of LNG export facilities and causing power outages. (8) About 40% of U.S. electricity is generated by gas-fired power plants, but most natural gas production comes from shale formations away from the Gulf; in 2025, federal offshore Gulf production will account for only about 2% of total nationwide marketed output. (9) Institutional data shows that average daily output in the Lower 48 states so far in October dropped to about 111.2 billion cubic feet, below the record 113.3 billion cubic feet per day seen in August and September. (10) Output is expected to fall further on Thursday to a four-month low of around 108.5 billion cubic feet per day, mainly due to Isaias-related offshore shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico. (11) Institutional forecasts indicate U.S. nationwide average demand, including exports, will fall from 106.6 billion cubic feet per day this week to 104.0 billion cubic feet per day next week in the Lower 48 states. (12) So far in October, average gas flow to the U.S. nine major LNG export facilities dropped to 16.9 billion cubic feet per day, down from 17.9 billion in September and a record 18.8 billion in April.

According to information from Zhitong Finance APP, oil stocks broadly rose on Thursday. BP rose by more than 3%, while Petrobras, Occidental Petroleum, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, and Chevron each gained over 2%. International oil prices continued to climb, with WTI crude rising as much as 5% intraday to $92.72 per barrel.