WTI posts modest gains above $88.50 on unexpected EIA draw, Middle East conflicts in focus

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $88.55 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. WTI posts modest gains as US crude oil inventories fell unexpectedly last week. Traders will focus on fresh Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and continuing oil flows out of the Middle East.

US crude oil inventories showed a surprise draw last week. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending October 2 fell by 3.186 million barrels, compared to an increase of 922,000 barrels in the previous week. The market consensus was for a rise of 1.9 million barrels.

However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to accelerate a release of strategic oil stocks in an effort to address surging fuel prices. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the WTI price. The IEA has deployed about 325 million barrels of oil under the March emergency action plan to address the supply disruption triggered by the Iran war.

Furthermore, escalating tensions in the Middle East could boost the black gold in the near term. Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen launched fresh strikes on Saudi Arabia. Saudi-led coalition said that it retaliated against the Houthis, adding that the attacks "will not go unpunished.” The coalition said on Wednesday that it had attacked more than 80 Houthi military sites across the governorates of Saada, Hodeidah, Jawf, and Marib.

CTA flows in WTI crude track systematic response across tapes

According to TD Securities, trend-following commodity trading advisors remain net long WTI Crude, with current exposure described as “23.0%” of maximum historical size and an upside trigger level flagged at “$97.70.” The bank’s “CTA Positioning Estimate (rhs) WTI Crude Prices” framework maps how systematic positioning could evolve across different market regimes, distinguishing between “CTA positioning est., WTI Crude, downtape,” “CTA positioning est., WTI Crude, flat tape,” “CTA positioning est., WTI Crude, uptape,” and “CTA positioning est., WTI Crude, big uptape” scenarios through the forecast horizon.

Technical Analysis: WTI holds below the 20-day SMA, with bearish momentum

In the daily chart, the near-term bias of WTI US Oil turns bearish, as price has slipped back under the 20-period Bollinger simple moving average, leaving it capped beneath the recent volatility midline while still holding above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). The lower Bollinger band reinforces a soft demand area just above the longer-term trend floor, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46.33 drifts below the midline and hints at waning upside momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band at $92.50, with a stronger barrier coming in at the upper band near $99.90, where prior buying pressure could fade again. On the downside, initial support is seen at the lower Bollinger band around $85.05, followed by the 100-day SMA at $84.15, a level that would need to hold to prevent a deeper corrective slide toward the mid-$80s.

(This story was corrected at 01:15 GMT on Thursday to say, in the second bullet point, that crude oil inventories fell by 3.186 million barrels in the week ended October 2, rather than rose.)