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SPCX stock jumped 7.35% to $158.96, putting the stock close to the $170 breakout level.
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Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating and $300 price target, with its valuation case centered on SpaceX’s growth across AI computing, Starlink and launch infrastructure.
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A sustained break above $165 could put $175 and $190 in focus, while failure at resistance would keep $150 as the key downside level.
SpaceX stock is back on investors’ radar after a sharp 7% rally pushed SPCX stock toward $160, putting a key breakout level within reach. The move comes as Morgan Stanley maintains a $300 price target, while Starship milestones and expanding AI-computing operations strengthen the long-term growth case. But the stock now faces a critical technical test near $165. A decisive break could signal a broader repricing toward $190, while another rejection would keep SPCX trapped in its recent range.
Why Morgan Stanley Sees SPCX Reaching $300
Morgan Stanley’s $300 price target is the central bullish argument for SpaceX stock, but the thesis goes beyond SpaceX’s rocket business. Analyst Adam Jonas maintains an Overweight rating and argues that SpaceX’s valuation becomes more attractive when adjusted for its expected growth. The firm estimates SpaceX at roughly 30 times 2028 estimated EV/EBIT, compared with about 16 times for other mega-cap AI companies.
On a growth-adjusted EV/EBIT/G basis, however, SpaceX is estimated at around 0.3x, below the roughly 0.5x median for comparable mega-cap companies. That is the core of Morgan Stanley’s argument: SpaceX may look expensive on conventional valuation measures, but its growth profile could justify a higher multiple.
The $300 target therefore depends on SpaceX successfully scaling several businesses at once — AI computing, Starlink and launch infrastructure — rather than simply increasing rocket launches.
SpaceX Price Recovery Puts $170 in the Crosshairs
The latest Spacex price recovery has materially improved the technical structure. After falling to roughly $143.49 on September 15, SPCX recovered above $150 and then accelerated, closing at $158.96 on October 2 after trading as high as $159.84. The next important hurdle is now $165–$170.
A clean move above $165 would take SPCX beyond the immediate resistance area, while a sustained break through $170 would provide stronger confirmation that the recovery has developed into a broader breakout. Above $170, the next upside zone comes around $175–$190. On the downside, failure to hold the recovery could send the stock back toward $150, with the mid-$140s becoming relevant if that support breaks.
Starship’s Progress Adds Another Catalyst
Starship has also moved from a development story toward a more commercially relevant business. The 14th Starship flight successfully reached orbit and deployed 26 Starlink Version 3 satellites, marking the vehicle’s first orbital and revenue-generating mission. However, an engine issue shortened the flight, leaving further work ahead on reliability and reusability.
The next major test is Flight 15. Morgan Stanley has identified Starship’s development as one of the key catalysts for SPCX, particularly the planned attempt to catch the spacecraft. A successful catch would provide stronger evidence that SpaceX is progressing toward the rapid reusability required for a much higher launch cadence.
What SPCX Needs to Break $170
The next phase of the rally will require confirmation from both price action and business execution. Technically, SpaceX stock needs to clear $165 and then establish a sustained move above $170. That would shift the stock out of its recent recovery range and put $175–$190 into focus.
Fundamentally, investors will be watching:
- Starship Flight 15 and progress toward spacecraft reusability
- AI-computing capacity and new customer contracts
- Starlink growth
- Launch frequency and economics
- Revenue growth from the broader SpaceX ecosystem
The stronger these catalysts become, the easier it is for investors to justify the premium valuation required for a move toward $300 and beyond.
