Morgan Stanley shifts stance, expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates once each in November and February

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智通财经2026/09/25 11:06

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Bruna Skarica and Fabio Bassanin of Morgan Stanley stated in a report that rising energy prices mean the Bank of England is now expected to tighten policy.
These analysts have adjusted their expectations for the Bank of England to two quarterly rate hikes, scheduled for November and February, respectively.
They said that although they still believe, and are quite confident, that any signs of improvement in crude oil and refined oil supply would cause the Bank of England to remain on hold from now on, it is difficult to maintain a long-term hold as the most likely scenario given the continuous recent Middle East-related news.
They noted that the only factor likely to trigger a more significant tightening is if the budget, to be announced next month, is markedly expansionary and inflationary in terms of fiscal policy.
From a market perspective, this adjustment reflects that the transmission of energy prices to UK inflation expectations is changing institutional judgment, and future attention should be paid to developments in the Middle East situation and the fiscal stance of the UK budget.

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Morgan Stanley shifts stance, expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates once each in November and February

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