"Jiang Feng Trading Strategy Diary" Issue 49
The market has moved completely beyond expectations in the past two days. BTC surged from around $80,000 to near 87,400, and ETH also broke through 2,600 to reach around 2,800.
Especially with the recent consecutive large net inflows for BTC ETFs, with a single-day net inflow close to $1 billion on September 21, it indicates that this rally is clearly being driven by spot funds.
All subsequent strategies will clearly specify entry and exit points, as well as clear narrow stop-losses. I hope I can stick to strict execution—letting go of all obsessions and making decisions based only on fundamentals and price action, without letting my current positions sway my thinking!
Now I can no longer blindly short based on previous rebound scenarios, so I have closed all open positions. Returning to rational analysis, an empty position is the only way to physically separate myself from any trading obsession.
BTC is currently at 86,500. The first short-term support to watch is at the 85,000–85,500 range. If there is a pullback and it stabilizes here, consider going long, stop-loss below 84,000.
Targets: watch for 86,600 ~ 88,500 ~ 89,500 ~ 90,900 ~ 91,800 range
If it continues to climb directly, focus on the 89,500–90,900 range. If there is a clear spike and pullback here, you can try a light short position. Stop-loss above 92,000, targets are 88,000 ~ 86,500 ~ 85,000 range
ETH is currently near 2,760, which is already close to an important previous resistance area. Not recommended to chase longs in the short term. First support: 2,680–2,720
If it pulls back and stabilizes, consider going long near 2,720–2,680, stop-loss below 2,635, targets: 2,790 ~ 2,865 ~ 2,900 ~ 3,000 range
If it directly spikes up to 2,865–2,910 and then quickly retreats, you can try a short-term short, stop-loss above 2,930, targets: 2,800 ~ 2,750 ~ 2,680 range
ETH’s technical structure has clearly strengthened, and the 2,800 level is also an important area drawing market attention; if it breaks through effectively, the upward potential could further expand.
⚠️ Short positions should be small and stop-loss must be strictly enforced, focus should be mainly on long positions!
The most important thing this time: the market has changed, so trading strategies must change accordingly. You can't keep waiting for a drop just because you were previously bearish.
