Everbright Futures 0923 Gold Review: Improved inflation expectations provide temporary support for gold prices
On September 22, COMEX gold first fell and then rose during the session, closing at $4,396.2/oz, up 0.28%. In China, SHFE gold night session opened slightly higher and surged rapidly near the close, finishing at 941.10 yuan/gram, an increase of 0.36%.
According to ADP data, over the four weeks ending September 5, the US private sector added an average of 20,000 jobs per week. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston expressed support for last week’s rate hike, stating that raising rates helps ensure inflation returns to its target. Geopolitically, Trump mentioned that negotiations with Iran are ongoing and may eventually lead to an agreement. After the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in September, the dot plot indicates there could be one more hike this year. However, there is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve about raising rates to curb inflation, which also limits speculation in gold. The market is also closely watching the direction of US employment and economic data, and any economic or employment data that falls “short of expectations” during this period could further reinforce investor confidence in the logic of stagflation. In addition, according to the latest moves from various parties, controlling energy inflation may become a common goal, and the Federal Reserve’s willingness to raise rates again this year remains highly uncertain. Therefore, overall, gold is likely to remain constrained by concerns over further rate hikes, and caution is advised.
Source: Wind, Everbright Futures Research Institute
Written by: Shi Yueming
Practitioner ID: F03097365
Trading Advisory ID: Z0017563
Editor: Zhu Henan

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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