Federal Reserve tariff refund survey: Enterprises prefer "hoarding cash" rather than investing or lowering prices, casting doubt on the economic stimulus effect

According to Jinse Finance APP, a survey released on Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta shows that most companies receiving billions of dollars in tariff refunds are choosing to hold onto the money. As part of the Atlanta Fed’s “Survey of Business Uncertainty,” among more than 1,100 business executives surveyed in August, about a quarter said they had already received refunds or were in the process of applying for them. These refunds are expected to average about 1.7% of annual revenue.

The refunds began being issued in May, after the Supreme Court ruled that the so-called $166 billion emergency tariffs were illegal. According to documents submitted to the court by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, as of September 11, approximately $134.7 billion in refunds (including interest) had been paid out or were pending processing.

There is little public knowledge about how this money will circulate through the U.S. economy. Of the 220 executives who disclosed their plans to researchers (including Stanford University economists Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis), about three-quarters said they expect to retain the refunds in cash.

Slightly more than half of this group also said they intend to invest in research and capital projects, 17% stated they expect to provide rebates to customers, and nearly 15% said they would use the funds to lower prices. Respondents were asked to select all applicable uses.

“These results also indicate that a considerable portion of tariff refunds will directly benefit customers and employees,” the researchers wrote in a blog post published Monday. The survey was conducted from August 10 to 21.

How much of this money will flow back to households through rebates, bonuses, or lower prices—a question that could have a significant impact on the economic outlook. Despite factors such as rising gasoline prices causing persistent inflation, U.S. consumers continue to spend, supporting economic growth. Tariff rebates or possible price reductions due to refunds could further bolster this spending.

As the Trump administration instead seeks to restore tariff revenues under laws seen as more lasting, the pace of tariff refunds is slowing. In August, for the first time since the Treasury Department began issuing refunds, the tariffs paid by importers exceeded the refunds they received.

This month, Federal Reserve officials raised interest rates for the first time in three years, saying it was a necessary step to help curb inflation—which is rising after more than five years above target. Policymakers are also trying to assess how much inflation is being driven by supply shocks such as wars and issues related to Iran, and how much is demand-driven—including the artificial intelligence boom lifting capital spending and other investments.