(Kitco News) - Spot gold and silver prices were also softer after the U.S. close on Monday, as a sharp equity rebound, weaker oil and a modest retreat in Treasury yields reduced safe-haven demand while Fed-rate expectations stayed restrictive. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,337.20 an ounce, down 0.95%, while spot silver was trading near $66.080, down 0.44% on the session.
North American equity markets closed broadly higher. The S&P 500 rose 1.5% to 7,764.70, the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.3% to 27,122.09 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.7% to 52,048.83. The Russell 2000 added 0.5% to 2,875.36. European bourses also finished firmer, with the STOXX Europe 600 up 1.0%, Germany’s DAX up 1.1%, the Euro Stoxx 50 up 1.3%, France’s CAC 40 up 0.9% and London’s FTSE 100 up 0.8%.
The latest positioning remains centered on a market that has accepted last week’s 25-basis-point Fed hike but has not priced out further tightening. The FOMC lifted the target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on Sept. 16, and the median projection still points to 4.1% by year-end. August retail sales rose 1.2%, initial jobless claims fell to 196,000 and traders were pricing an 88% probability of another U.S. rate hike in December. That mix left gold caught between lower oil-led inflation pressure and a still-hawkish rates path, with 10-year Treasury yields easing to 4.95% to 4.96% but staying close to the psychologically important 5% area.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the market’s pressure valve rather than a resolved risk. Oil prices fell for a fourth session as investors priced a partial recovery in Saudi shipments and a possible diplomatic track around this week’s U.N. meetings, with Brent crude settling at $100.34 a barrel, down 3.4%, and WTI settling at $95.78, down 4.5%. Saudi oil moving through Hormuz averaged 2.9 million barrels per day over the past six days, up from roughly 700,000 barrels per day in August. The near-term effect was bearish for oil, supportive for equities and marginally negative for gold, as part of the geopolitical risk premium came out of crude and safe-haven metals.
The U.S. bond market remains the larger structural risk. A 10-year yield near 5% raises the discount rate on equities, increases mortgage and corporate borrowing costs and turns federal debt service into a more visible macro constraint. Publicly held U.S. debt was $31.3 trillion as of April, roughly equal to the size of the economy, while net interest spending in fiscal 2025 exceeded national defense spending. With deficits still large, every sustained move higher in long rates feeds directly into refinancing costs, Treasury supply concerns and the real-rate headwind for non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and settled around $95.78 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $100.34. The U.S. dollar index was firmer. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was trading near the 5.0% area.
Rania Gule, market analyst at XS.com, said “conflicting fundamental factors are shaping the market,” a fair description of gold’s current setup. Higher yields and Fed-hike pricing are limiting upside momentum, while geopolitical risk, central-bank demand and fiscal concerns continue to support longer-horizon buying interest.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,400.00 to $4,407.27 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,443.00 and then $4,475.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,334.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,304.00 and then $4,261.00. First resistance is seen at $4,370.78 and then at $4,407.27. First support is seen at $4,341.90 and then at $4,334.00.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $67.27 to $67.34 area, with a move above that zone targeting $71.18 and then $73.14. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $65.26, with deeper downside targets at $63.14 and then $62.31. First resistance is seen at $66.318 and then at $67.275. Next support is seen at $65.299 and then at $65.260.
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