Supply Disruption Leads to Raised Oil Price Forecast

⑴ Several major banks are raising their Brent crude forecasts as ongoing disruptions in Middle Eastern shipping continue to tighten global oil supply, with oil prices likely to close above $100 per barrel this week. ⑵ HSBC expects the average price of Brent crude to be $90 per barrel in 2026, reflecting their baseline assessment of the duration of the supply gap. ⑶ Goldman Sachs warns that if production in the Gulf region continues to be severely disrupted, oil prices could exceed $120 per barrel, suggesting there is still room for supply risk premiums to rise. ⑷ Bank of America believes there are even more extreme scenarios; if energy infrastructure suffers significant damage, oil prices could reach $150 per barrel, highlighting that tail risks cannot be ignored. ⑸ Overall, shipping disruptions and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to push up energy price expectations, with inflationary pressures and risks of rising bond yields reinforcing each other; going forward, the focus will be on the pace of supply recovery and changes in inventories.