Brent crude oil weekly gains expected to be significant as ongoing US-Iran tensions continue to disrupt supply

(1) Brent crude oil fell below $105 per barrel on Friday, which may reflect a technical pullback, but is still expected to record a significant increase this week. The escalating tensions between the US and Iran have triggered concerns in the market over long-term disruptions to global energy supplies. (2) According to reports, US officials have warned President Trump that the conflict may last for the remainder of his term, and despite rising economic costs, Iran’s leadership appears determined to continue its resistance. (3) Tehran claims to have restored its missile capabilities, and if Washington escalates its actions, it may increase strikes on American and Gulf targets. (4) OPEC has lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 380,000 barrels per day, marking the fifth consecutive downgrade. The organization’s output in August declined by 640,000 barrels per day. (5) The International Energy Agency has also reduced its outlook for Russian crude oil production, lowering its 2026 forecast by 125,000 barrels per day to 8.7 million barrels per day.