Copper: Record prices with real constraints – NBC

National Bank of Canada's (NBC) Kyle Dahms highlights that Copper has reached a fresh nominal record, driven by AI-related data-centre demand, electricity grid expansion, tariff-driven stockpiling and supply disruptions. He notes that in constant Dollar terms Copper is at a 15‑year high and nearing its 2011 peak, raising costs for power grids, AI infrastructure and broader electrification projects.

Copper nears nominal and real highs

"The longer-term demand backdrop remains supported by AI-related data-centre construction and the associated expansion of electricity generation and grids, while the latest gains have been amplified by tariff-driven stockpiling and supply disruptions."

“One less obvious link to Hormuz is sulphur. Shipments through the Strait have been severely curtailed, helping push sulphur prices to more than twice their level at the start of the year. This matters for copper because sulphur is a key feedstock for sulphuric acid, which is used in certain processing methods.”

"On this basis, copper is trading at a 15-year high and will soon surpass its 2011 peak, a move that would lift the real price to its highest level since the mid-1970s."

"In our view, this increasingly represents a tax on the very investment intended to support future growth, raising the cost of power grids, AI data centres and other electrification projects just as geopolitical fragmentation is making supply less reliable."