The risk of prolonged conflict pushes oil prices to multi-week highs, with Brent crude nearing the $100 mark

1. On Tuesday, international oil prices continued their upward trend, reaching multi-week highs. Brent crude futures rose as much as 1.5% to $98.76 per barrel, marking the highest since July 24. WTI crude futures surged as much as 3% to $94.26 per barrel, reaching their highest level since June 8.2. Iran threatened to retaliate against any new attacks from the United States and claimed to have launched advanced missiles at US warships, highlighting the increased risk of further escalation of the conflict. The Head of Energy Research at DBS Bank noted that the recent intensification of US-Iran hostilities could materially change the market’s assessment of oil price risks for the remainder of 2026 and potentially for a considerable period in 2027.3. Analysts at ANZ Bank stated that the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East raises the likelihood of the region entering a prolonged standoff. Supply from the Persian Gulf may remain restricted for the rest of 2026, and oil shipments are expected to fully recover to pre-war levels only by late Q1 or early Q2 of 2027.4. Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 Brent and WTI price forecasts by $5 to $85 and $80 per barrel, respectively, and lifted its 2027 forecasts to $80 and $75 per barrel, reflecting its new assumption that disruptions to Middle East shipping will persist until 2027. In its September commodity outlook, Marex pointed out that as long as the war continues, crude oil prices are likely to remain high through the end of the year.