WTI struggles to hold above $90 despite material supply risks

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, turns upside down to near $89.50 during the European trading session on Monday. The oil price continues to face selling pressure above the $90 mark even as financial markets see prolonged global energy supply risks amid ongoing tensions between the United States (US) and Iran.

In the latest bout, Iran was seen attacking three oil tankers that attempted to pass the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost 20% of global energy supply, over the weekend, in retaliation for the US attacking Iranian tankers, Bloomberg reported.

Analysts at Danske Bank note that renewed US-Iran strikes on commercial shipping around the Hormuz raise concerns over prolonged disruptions to Middle East energy flows.

Strategists at ING also see the oil market remaining “well-supported with little sign of a peace between the US and Iran," as geopolitical risks in the Persian Gulf intensify. They added that Tehran’s plans to enforce a new restricted zone outside the Hormuz could put “additional vessels in the Gulf of Oman at risk”.

Meanwhile, the OPEC+ kept oil output policy unchanged for October on Sunday.

According to a Reuters report, the group is likely to pause further output increases in Q4 while it reviews 2027 quota baselines.

Danske Bank cautions that “OPEC+'s ability to steer actual supply and prices remains limited as long as the Iran conflict continues to disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz”.

WTI Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, WTI US Oil trades at $89.74, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds well above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at roughly $85.27.

The rising EMA suggests an underlying uptrend, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 63 points to firm but not yet overbought bullish momentum, implying that dips are likely to attract buying interest while price stays above the short-term average.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the recent price pivot near $89.74, with stronger technical backing at the 20-day EMA around $85.27 if a deeper pullback unfolds. On the upside, the intraday high at $91.09 is the immediate resistance zone, followed by an almost three-month high at $92.25.