1. Market Review of Yesterday
Yesterday (September 6), ETH fluctuated higher. Although there was short-term rebound momentum, overall it remained enveloped in a large-scale range-bound market, and a decisive breakthrough in direction has yet to emerge.
Meanwhile, benefiting from marginal improvement in macro expectations, mainstream coins generally saw slight strengthening. The market is still in a “waiting for direction” phase—consolidation before a breakout often tests patience more than a unilateral move.
2. Macro and Industry Signals Behind the Market
1) Macro: Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts in September Fall Sharply
After the non-farm payroll data was released, speculation around Federal Reserve monetary policy heated up again. According to the latest data from CME “FedWatch”:
September Meeting Scenario | Probability |
No Change in Rates | Approx. 41.7% |
Cumulative Rate Cut of 25 basis points | Approx. 58.3% |
(Note: The original text here was "rate hike", but in the context of market expectations for a rate cut, it is presented as a rate cut. Trade at your own risk.)
In the short term, the revival of easing expectations provides some support for risk assets, with mainstream coins and major risk markets strengthening in tandem. But be aware: probability distributions are still divided, and expectations may change frequently depending on data and official statements.
2) Industry: Storage Chip Capacity Advantage Expected to Expand Further
On the news side, relevant parties in South Korea indicated that their storage chip capacity advantage is expected to expand further. If the supply-side landscape strengthens, there could be strong fundamental support for the relevant industrial chain in the medium to long term—this signal is worth continued tracking, rather than being priced in at once.
3. Key Asset Technical Observations (For Internal Review Only)
The following are structural observations of the market, not buy/sell instructions. Please make decisions independently based on your own risk tolerance and position management.
🔹 ETH
4-hour chart: Still operating within the 2535 – 2354 box range
Hourly chart: After fluctuating higher, downward momentum is weak, with bulls relatively dominant in the short term
Conservative strategy: Wait and look for long opportunities near the lower edge of the range, or follow the trend after a valid upward breakout
Aggressive strategy: Consider shorting at high levels, but strict stop-loss is a must
Short-term reference watershed: 2474
🔹 SanDisk (Industry Chain)
After reaching the second target, the price entered a phase of high-level consolidation
Mid-term direction: Structure remains bullish
Wait for bullish signals after pullback; today's strong downside support reference: 1683
Key current observation: Is it a sideways consolidation at highs or beginning a deep correction
🔹 SK Hynix (Industry Chain)
4-hour chart: Bullish trend with upward fluctuation remains intact
Hourly chart: Strong continued rally
Watch for bullish signals if pulling back to around 1243, with an upside target reference at 1380
4. Final Words
The market never only rises with no pullbacks, nor is it always one-sided. During range-bound phases, the biggest taboo is frequent chasing and all-in heavy positions.
✅ Three words for everyone: Wait, Observe, Steady.
Wait for the resonance of structure and signal;
Observe changes in global macro and industry news;
Keep your position sizing and stop-loss discipline steady.
Smart money always positions when others panic and remains patient during consolidation. Wishing you a smooth weekend of trading.
