US Stock Macro Preview (Sep 7–Sep 11)August inflation tests hike odds; Apple foldable and Oracle earnings

September 7 (Monday)

1. U.S. markets closed for Labor Day; liquidity likely to concentrate in Asian and European hours;

September 8 (Tuesday)

1. August NFIB Small Business Optimism (18:00 BJT / 6:00 a.m. ET); New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations (23:00 BJT / 11:00 a.m. ET);
2. Canada’s reciprocal tariffs on the U.S., sized at $20 billion, take effect;

September 9 (Wednesday)

1. Weekly ADP employment change for the week ended Aug. 22 (20:15 BJT / 8:15 a.m. ET);
2. Treasury’s expanded long-end liquidity buybacks take effect, lifting the per-operation cap at least twofold to $4 billion (through Nov. 4);
3. GOP midterm convention opens in Dallas (through Sep. 10); Trump and Vance expected to deliver keynotes on tariffs, fiscal policy and immigration;
4. Apple fall launch at 10:00 a.m. PT (1:00 a.m. Sep. 10 BJT): first foldable iPhone plus iPhone 18 Pro lineup; pricing and BOM costs in focus;

September 10 (Thursday)

1. ★★★★★ August PPI at 20:30 BJT / 8:30 a.m. ET; Bloomberg sees +5.3% y/y, +0.4% m/m, core PPI +4.7% y/y; weekly jobless claims at the same time;
2. August existing-home sales and July wholesale trade (22:00 BJT / 10:00 a.m. ET); first enlarged 10- to 20-year Treasury buyback slated the same day;
3. ★★★★★ Oracle and Adobe report after the close, focusing on cloud backlog conversion and Firefly monetization; TSMC releases August revenue;

September 11 (Friday)

1. ★★★★★ August CPI at 20:30 BJT / 8:30 a.m. ET; sources see headline +3.4% y/y (unchanged from July) and +0.4% m/m, core +0.2% m/m and about +2.5% y/y;
2. Waller has said the print will “greatly influence” his September vote: core CPI ≤0.2% m/m favors holding rates; ≥0.3% m/m would argue for a hike;
3. University of Michigan September preliminary sentiment and 1-year inflation expectations (22:00 BJT / 10:00 a.m. ET).

*Core themes this week: August PPI/CPI as the last inflation test before the Sept. 15–16 FOMC, Apple’s foldable launch, Oracle/Adobe as AI-earnings checkpoints, and Treasury long-end buybacks; volatility is likely to rise.